141
FXUS63 KEAX 091939
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
239 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-70.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING FOR A
FEW COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-70
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY, INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- COOLER/MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FULLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTH
OF A OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN CWA
BORDER. SOUTH OF THESE SHOWERS IN A AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING,
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF 2000+J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TONIGHT, THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH IOWA WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. AS IT DOES, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. WHILE THESE
STORM ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE, PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
MAKE THESES STORMS VERY EFFICIENT MAKING LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT EXITING THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. FRIDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MODEST WAA DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE ARE ESPECIALLY
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE RAIN SATURDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
THE GFS IS SHOWING INCREASING PWATS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.8 INCHES. THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THAT THIS WILL
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING
AND TRAINING CELLS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE RISK OF FLOODING IS GOING TO DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT IF WE DO SEE RAIN, THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY. AS SUCH, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT ERO FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BUT RIGHT NOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
LGT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES THRU 21Z-22Z ALTHO NO CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR AND DRY THRU 04Z-05Z BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS
REDUCED TO 2SM-4SM. AFT 07Z-08Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONT WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR CONDS AND VIS REMAINING
REDUCED TO 2-4SM.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ045-053-054.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ060.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73/IPC/BT
AVIATION...73
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page