107
FXUS63 KEAX 250448
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT FALL-LIKE WEATHER COMES TO AN END AS A GLOOMY WEEKEND
IS EXPECTED.
- SOME SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR MW MO THIS
EVENING.
- SHORT DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGS MORE RAIN INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE WITH RESPECT TO A
500MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS IS WHAT
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES OFF TO THE SOUTH, ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES HAS ALLOWED FOR EASTERLY FLOW TO BRING A MORE FALL-LIKE
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. OUR DRY, PLEASANT FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
STICK AROUND UNTIL TONIGHT, BEFORE A SHORTWAVE BRINGS A WETTER
FRIDAY AND WEEKEND. FAR NW MO WILL GET A SMALL TASTE THIS
EVENING AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
TO SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING.
OFF THE WEST COAST, WE HAVE SEVERAL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WILL HAVE
A DIRECT EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER FRIDAY, AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH ANOTHER LOW FEATURE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
REGION. THESE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE WILL CREATE AS SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT, AND WILL
PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE OUR LIFTING
MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE FOR A CLOUDY, COOLER, AND RAINIER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, AN ONGOING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT ACROSS MISSOURI, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO THE NORTH, AND 80S TO THE SOUTH. THIS
IS BEING CAUSED BY SEVERAL FEATURES, SUCH AS EASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH, AND THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP SOUTHERLY WARM AIR FLOW. THE
COMBINED WILL BRING ENOUGH LIFT FOR ON AND OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI,
AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE REST OF THE CWA BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND NORTHERN. EASTWARD, MORE SPARES COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND MORNING RAINFALL KEEPS
TEMPERATURES LOWER AS WELL AS LIMIT INSTABILITY; THEREFORE,
REDUCING CHANCES FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THAT SAID, THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO FACILITATE A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING, AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS. RAINY AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND INTO SUNDAY WITH RAIN LOOKING TO
VACATE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOW QUICKLY THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE ONGOING
BLOCKING PATTERN BUILDS OR BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE DAY. A
CURRENT LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
NOTABLE NOR'EASTER, AND UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
INFLUENCE HOW THE ONGOING RIDGE PROGRESSES. IF THE NOR'EASTER
SYSTEM AND BLOCKING PATTERN WERE TO LINGER AROUND LONGER, IT
POTENTIALLY COULD KEEP OUR RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, KEEPING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROUND LONGER ON SUNDAY, AND HAVE A COOLER MONDAY. IF
THE NOR'EASTER AND BLOCKING PATTERN MOVES OUT/BREAKS DOWN, THE
RIDGE WOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
AREA, AND LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON SHORE THE PACIFIC COAST AS THE
BLOCKING PATTERN EXITS THE EASTERN CONUS. TIMING WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHEN EXACTLY OUR ONGOING PATTERNS MOVE OUT, BUT
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SOME TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WOULD BRING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SHOWERS IN NE KS ARE INTENSIFYING, BRINGING STRAY SHOWERS TO
STJ OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY START TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES AROUND 13-15Z BUT MVFR CIGS LOOK
TO BE CONTAINED TO NORTH OF I-70. SHOWERS MAY TAPER OFF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING BACK MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW 10KTS OUT OF THE E THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJORK/PESEL
AVIATION...IPC/BT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page