316
FXUS63 KEAX 250834
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA, STICKING AROUND FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.5-1.25 INCHES.
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
- SHORT DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGS MORE RAIN INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SHOWERS FROM WESTERN KS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS WE START OFF
OUR RAINY WEEKEND. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OVER OUR AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO OUR NE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHILE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE
WEEKEND AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AT 500MB WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NOR'EASTER DEVELOPING
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NW AND WESTERN CANADA. AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
THIS WEEKEND OF 0.5 INCHES ALONG I-70 AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 1.25 INCHES FOR NW MO. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS
CLEARING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS CLEAR OUT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY BUT IT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THE NOR'EASTER THAT LOOKS TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS COULD POTENTIALLY STICK AROUND FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER.
AS LONG AS THE RIDGE CAN PROGRESS EAST, AS MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST,
WE SHOULD DRY OUT BRIEFLY MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
THERE IS ANOTHER 500MB TROUGH THAT DEEPENS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODELS SHOW THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE SW US SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SYSTEMS THEN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST, BRINGING STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA WITH STRONG, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF AT THE SURFACE AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALOFT, MAKING FOR A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. AS A
RESULT, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER MO FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SHOWERS IN NE KS ARE INTENSIFYING, BRINGING STRAY SHOWERS TO
STJ OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY START TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES AROUND 13-15Z BUT MVFR CIGS LOOK
TO BE CONTAINED TO NORTH OF I-70. SHOWERS MAY TAPER OFF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING BACK MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW 10KTS OUT OF THE E THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...IPC
AVIATION...IPC/BT
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