386
FXUS63 KEAX 260833
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THEY
SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE.
- DRY OUT BRIEFLY MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
AT 500MB, BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH THE NOR'EASTER OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NW. SHORTWAVES OFF OF THE PNW TROUGH HOWEVER HAVE HELPED
TO DISTURB THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST, PROVIDING LIFT FOR THE
SHOWERS WE HAVE SEEN. NEAR THE SURFACE, CONTINUING MOIST, WAA
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL KS
INTERACTS WITH THE SHORTWAVES ALOFT, SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL BE ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY
SUPPORTING A 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER CAPE VALUES REMAIN LOW (300-600 J/KG) AND SHEAR IS LIMITED
(20-25KTS) SO SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN WITH THE RIDGE MOVING BACK
INTO MO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE 25TH-75TH ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR 500MB
HEIGHTS IS MINIMAL SO THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL START
TO MOVE OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD HAVE A DRY START TO THE
WORK WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING BACK IN MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW TOWARDS THE SW CONUS WHERE IT
MAY COMBINE WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA,
RESULTING IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH
SUCH HIGH PWAT VALUES WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER SETUP FOR NEXT WEEK SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SHORTWAVE BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE REGION NEAR 12Z ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER - SPREADING EAST WITH TIME. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE HIGH BASED RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS- EXCEPT FOR FAR
NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 WHERE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...IPC
AVIATION...IPC/BT
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