492
FXUS63 KEAX 261720
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THEY
SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE.
- DRY OUT BRIEFLY MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
AT 500MB, BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH THE NOR'EASTER OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NW. SHORTWAVES OFF OF THE PNW TROUGH HOWEVER HAVE HELPED
TO DISTURB THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST, PROVIDING LIFT FOR THE
SHOWERS WE HAVE SEEN. NEAR THE SURFACE, CONTINUING MOIST, WAA
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL KS
INTERACTS WITH THE SHORTWAVES ALOFT, SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL BE ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY
SUPPORTING A 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER CAPE VALUES REMAIN LOW (300-600 J/KG) AND SHEAR IS LIMITED
(20-25KTS) SO SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN WITH THE RIDGE MOVING BACK
INTO MO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE 25TH-75TH ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR 500MB
HEIGHTS IS MINIMAL SO THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL START
TO MOVE OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD HAVE A DRY START TO THE
WORK WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING BACK IN MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW TOWARDS THE SW CONUS WHERE IT
MAY COMBINE WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA,
RESULTING IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH
SUCH HIGH PWAT VALUES WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER SETUP FOR NEXT WEEK SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
A PRETTY MESSY TAF PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, CHANCES LINGER THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL BE FAR FROM PERSISTENT. AS SUCH,
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TARGET SELECT WINDOWS WITHIN THE PERIOD. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER MAY BE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ INCREASES. WINDS MAY BE BRIEFLY GUSTY AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN/AROUND ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT, WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MVFR CEILINGS IN/AROUND
KSTJ AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...IPC
AVIATION...IPC
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