991
FXUS63 KEAX 271956
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
256 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE DUE TO AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW (NOR'EASTER) OFF
THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY, WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS EAST OF ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE
WEST COAST, WITH WEAK NORTH NORTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
PRESENT BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE RED RIVER. A RELATIVELY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YIELDED PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD CENTRAL
MISSOURI. ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. FOR TONIGHT, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST, WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HURRICANE POLO
APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA, SENDING THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS
CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE
REMNANTS OF POLO'S MOISTURE PLUME IS PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED BY
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ENHANCED SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR CWA. WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
AND AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS FAR NW MISSOURI, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO COVER THE
ENTIRE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN WHERE EXACTLY MODELS WANT TO PLACE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY
DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER, CURRENT GRIDS STILL SHOW
ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NW
MISSOURI AND NE KANSAS. CLOUD COVER AND SOME PATCHY SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
CURRENTLY MVFR CIGS AT MCI AND MKC, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT IXD
AND STJ WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT MCI AND MKC BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT STJ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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