376
FXUS63 KEAX 291051
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
551 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED (>95% CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLOODING. TODAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BUILT OVER THE REGION WILL FLATTEN OUT AS A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA A WEAK LLJ WILL OVER RUN THE FRONT AND NOSE INTO
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN CWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TONIGHT, RAIN CHANGES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES MORE FOCUSED OVER
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
POPS WILL BE IN THE 70-90+% RANGE WHEREAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ARE LESS THAN 15%. PWATS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.80"-2.20" WHICH IS AROUND THE 100TH PERCENTILE
FOR EARLY OCTOBER. AS SUCH, HEAVY RAIN WILL POSSIBLE, AND
CONSEQUENTLY A FLOOD WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. SEVERAL LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FEATURE BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
CONTINUED ROUND OF STORMS INTO THE AREA. A PERSISTENT LLJ NOSING
INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDED ADDED LIFT AND MOISTURE AS
PWAT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.80"-2.20" DURING THIS PERIOD. LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND FINALLY BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING ONE
LAST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. ALL TOLD, CURRENT FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS THREE DAY EVENT RANGE FROM 2-4+
INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR WITH 1-3
INCHES SOUTH. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER
THIS PAST WEEKEND WEATHER ARE WETTER WITH 1-3" HAVING HAD FALLEN AND
WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED THERE THE
FLOOD WATCH THAT IS OUT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS WARRANTED.
NOT AS MUCH PRECIPITATION FELL FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FORECAST WE WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE WATCH
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE NECESSARY WITH FURTHER UPDATES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS KEEPING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE TAF PD WITH A FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 6KFT AND A OVC DECK OF HI CLOUDS ABV. BY 17Z-19Z A OVC
MID-LVL CLOUD DECK AROUND 10KFT IS EXPECTED TO MOV INTO THE TAF
SITES. AFT 23Z-00Z...LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES WHICH MAY REDUCE VIS TO 5SM-6SM UNDER A OVC DECK BTN
4-5KFT. LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED THRU 08Z-10Z AFT WHICH OVC CIGS BTN
4-5KFT ARE FCST (EXCEPT AT STJ WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
AFT 06Z). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BTN 7-12KTS
(WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS POSS AT IXD BTN 16Z-19Z) THRU 08Z-10Z
WHEN THEY ARE FCST TO BACK TO THE SE/SSE AND DIMINISH TO BTN
4-8KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOZ001>005-011-012.
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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