857
FXUS63 KEAX 300507
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.
- FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO BE MORE PLEASANT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS MORE OCTOBER-LIKE AIR TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA, WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS RIDGING PATTERN IS GOING TO COME TO A
CLOSE AS THE FEATURE PROGRESSES TO OUR EAST AS WE SHIFT TO SEEING
THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD, AND INTERACT WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AS A RESULT, FLOW
WILL BE ENHANCED, AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO OUR
REGION. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH PWAT VALUES POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 2", AND COMBINING IT WITH OUR TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
FLOODING CONCERN ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI. WE HAVE GIVEN A FLOOD
WATCH OVER THOSE AREAS AS THE HIGH PWAT VALUES, MOISTURE CONTENT,
AND SYSTEM DURATION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING. THESE
FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AREAS SEEING 2"-4" OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GET UP INTO THE 80S, ALONG WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE GULF. OUR UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSION TODAY WILL ALLOW A
LOW-LEVEL JET TO PROGRESS OVER THE AREA, WHICH IS RESULTING IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT, AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT, AND LAST THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN
MISSOURI. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND
OF ACTIVITY, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING ACTUAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN KANSAS, DUE TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STAYING OUT
THERE. TODAY AND TONIGHT'S RAINFALL WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES GET FOR WEDNESDAY. AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WHICH
WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S, WHILE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT STAY DRY MAY END
UP PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
AFTER A QUICK BREAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE REMNANTS OF
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES
TO SEE SUB-SEVERE STORMS WILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY,
AS THE UPPER-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND GIVES US
COLD-AIR ALOFT TO GET HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY. ON-AND-OFF STORM
CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLOODING RISK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEREFORE, WILL HELP PUSH OFF
THE RAIN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. OUR TROUGH AND CLOSED-LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA, AND WILL MERGE IN WITH ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER. ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH
WILL LEAD TO A BREAK FROM THE RAIN STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER, BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH, RESULTING IN A
DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL
INTO MVFR OR BRIEF IFR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS, BUT BECAUSE THIS WOULD
BE FOR A SHORT DURATION AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, OPTED TO EXCLUDE
THIS FROM THE TAFS. KSTJ IS THE EXCEPTION, WHERE MVFR/IFR IS MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT HEAVIER AXIS OF
RAINFALL. AT THE METRO TERMINALS, PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AFTER SUNRISE. COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ001>005-011-012.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...BJORK
AVIATION...SHAW
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