060
FXUS63 KEAX 010700
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
200 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS & STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOODING
ALONG AREA RIVERS, CREEKS AND STREAM EXPECTED. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS THAT AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY PROVE HELPFUL IN
MITIGATING FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI
WHERE 1.5 UP TO 4 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND SEVERAL AREA RIVERS,
CREEKS, AND STREAMS ARE FORECAST TO RISE, OR ARE ALREADY IN MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOOD. IT IS HERE AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-1.50" OF PRECIPITATION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WHERE WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DESPITE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
FALLING SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH, AN EXPANSION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 TO 4
INCHES AND 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AS SUCH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TODAY, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO COME COURTESY OF A
PERSISTENT SSWLY 35-40KT LLJ. ALL THIS, COUPLED WITH PWATS RANGING
IN THE 2.00"-2.25" RANGE, WHICH IS IN THE 100TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR
EARLY OCTOBER, WILL LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. TONIGHT, THE
CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT, THIS WILL BRING ONE
MORE ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN THE TO AREA AND FORCE THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.
BEYOND TONIGHT, THE FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW BEHIND THE SYSTEM
THAT EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL AID IN PROVIDING SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 70S. MONDAY A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHT RISES AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S TO
LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
A MESSY TAF PERIOD AHEAD WITH NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR
IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS. INITIALLY, CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE WITH VFR CEILINGS AND NO PRECIPITATION. THIS BEGINS TO
COME TO AN END LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS COME DOWN AND
-SHRA AND -TSRA CHANCES RAMP UP ACROSS THE SITES. THIS BEGINS
SOONEST AT KSTJ AROUND/AFTER 09Z THEN SPREADS TO THE KC METRO
SITES AROUND/AFTER 11Z. EXPECTATION FOR A RELATIVELY NARROW AND
MIGRATING BAND OF -TSRA, SO HAVE OPTED FOR TEMPO USAGE. FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE WINDS GO NORTHERLY AND GUSTY
IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25 KTS, WHILE CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GRADUALLY WIND DOWN.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CURTIS
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