920
FXUS63 KEAX 011122
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS & STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOODING
ALONG AREA RIVERS, CREEKS AND STREAM EXPECTED. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE IS THAT AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY PROVE HELPFUL IN
MITIGATING FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI
WHERE 1.5 UP TO 4 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND SEVERAL AREA RIVERS,
CREEKS, AND STREAMS ARE FORECAST TO RISE, OR ARE ALREADY IN MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOOD. IT IS HERE AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-1.50" OF PRECIPITATION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WHERE WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DESPITE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
FALLING SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH, AN EXPANSION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 TO 4
INCHES AND 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AS SUCH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TODAY, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO COME COURTESY OF A
PERSISTENT SSWLY 35-40KT LLJ. ALL THIS, COUPLED WITH PWATS RANGING
IN THE 2.00"-2.25" RANGE, WHICH IS IN THE 100TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR
EARLY OCTOBER, WILL LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. TONIGHT, THE
CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT, THIS WILL BRING ONE
MORE ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN THE TO AREA AND FORCE THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.
BEYOND TONIGHT, THE FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW BEHIND THE SYSTEM
THAT EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL AID IN PROVIDING SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 70S. MONDAY A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHT RISES AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S TO
LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH LGT-MOD SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES TIL LATE IN THE TAF PD WHEN MINOR IMPROVEMENT ARE
POSS. A PD OF MOD-HVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES (EXCEPT STJ) BTN 20Z-01Z WITH VIS REDUCED TO
1-3SM. WINDS TO BEGIN THE TAF PD WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BTN
5-10KTS HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL LOOK TO PASS THRU THE TAF
SITES BTN 18Z-21Z SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NNE/NE BTN 7-12KTS. AFT
22Z-00Z...WINDS WILL INCR OUT OF THE N/NNE TO 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT 04Z-06Z REMAINING OUT
OF THE N BTN 10-15KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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