276
FXUS63 KEAX 160345
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1045 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING.
- AN INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR LATER TONIGHT,
QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NE KANSAS, NW
AND N MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY AND TO END THE
WORK-WEEK, WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS CONUS IS GENERALLY
RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE, INCLUDING A PAIR OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES
TO COME OFF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND HAS MORE RECENTLY BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS PUSHED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, TOO AIDING IN PUSHING MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OF
THE CWA. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO NW
MISSOURI AND NE KANSAS, AND WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH, A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WILL ALLOW DREARY AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THE REMAINING DAY-TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ISOLATED GENERAL THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COME TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW, A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
INCLUDE A STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AIR AND CAA, RAPIDLY PLUNGING THE
AREA BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR MID-OCTOBER. HI-RES GUIDANCE,
SUCH AS HRRR/RAP, HAVE NOTED A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WITH
THIS PUSH (STRONG SUBSIDENCE), INCLUDING RUN-TO-RUN DEPICTIONS OF
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-40S MPH BETWEEN 01Z-06Z THIS EVENING. NBM DID
COME IN NOTABLY LIGHTER DURING THIS WINDOW, HAVE BLENDED IN HRRR/RAP
SOLUTIONS TO SIGNAL THE INCREASINGLY LIKELY PERIOD OF ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS. BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
SETTLED ACROSS THE AREA WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR
MOST. SKIES MAY INITIALLY BE ON THE CLEAR SIDE, BUT AN AREA OF
STRATUS MAY DROP THROUGH AS THE CORE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS WELL WITH NW TO N WINDS AROUND 20
MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH. ONGOING CAA WILL ALSO LIMIT WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MOST FORECAST IN THE LOW 50S. OF NOTE, DID
DROP FRIDAY HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW INITIAL NBM, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH NEIGHBORS, TO BLEND IN ONGOING COLDER HI-RES GUIDANCE. CLOUD
COVER EXTENT AND DURATION WILL ULTIMATELY BE THE DETERMINANT THERE.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST FREEZE
FOR NW/N PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT TO
CALM ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE COOLER TREND IN GUIDANCE, HAVE
COORDINATED A FREEZE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEIGHBORS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS KEEPS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ABUNDANTLY QUIET AND ON THE
SEASONABLY COOL TO SEASONABLE, BUT WARMING SIDE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO RISE EACH DAY, YIELDING MID-UPPER 50S SATURDAY AND MID-UPPER 60S
SUNDAY.
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE WEEKEND WARMING TREND
PERSIST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND GRADUALLY WARMING
850MB TEMPS. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE AND A BAJA CALIFORNIA MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO
THE FLOW, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK AMONG THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
PREVAILING CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TOWARD
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ERODING OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY NW WINDS
ABOUT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 KTS. MARGINALLY MVFR
CLOUD DECK BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
GENERALLY 15 KT NNW WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS DURING THE
DAY. AROUND SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION, MARKING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-020.
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...MACKO
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