453
FXUS63 KEAX 161734
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COOL AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NE KANSAS, NW
AND N MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAS BEEN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY MAKING OUT DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH.
IN ADDITION, A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
USHERING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
STRONG CAA WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS EVENING A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALLOWING
WINDS TO RELAX AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING SKIES
TO CLEAR TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
INVITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA AND A FIRST FROST FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CWA. WHILE THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HARD OR KILLING
FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,
ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
PROVIDING FOR WEAK MIXING. SO, DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS WILL HOLD
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT NIGHT HOWEVER, THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING HOWEVER,
PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SUNDAY, SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
COUPLED WITH MODEST WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL DRIVE HIGHS BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY QUIET WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY STARTING THE WEEK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER, HIGHS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
MOVE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. THE NEXT
SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) FOR PRECIPITATION DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY
AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OUT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CURRENTLY AT OUR TAF SITES, WE ARE SEEING OVERCAST SKIES WITH 2500-
3500 FT AGL CEILINGS, PROMOTING THE AREA TO BE A CRITICAL THRESHOLD
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. THERE IS A NORTH WIND OF AROUND 15-20KTS, WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS WE LOSE
THE DAYTIME MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DECREASE AS DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH ADVECTS INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 0300Z, AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>007-
011>016-020.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ008-017-
021>025-028>033-037>039-043-044.
KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
103>105.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BJORK
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