855
FXUS63 KEAX 171623
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1123 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NE KANSAS, NW
AND N MISSOURI THROUGH 9AM FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
PROVIDING A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP ALLOWING LOWS TO START
THIS MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9AM FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF HE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
HOWEVER, SUNNY SKIES WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. TONIGHT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WEAK WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
KEEPING PATCHY FROST RELEGATED TO JUST SHELTERED AREA. SUNDAY, THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL
AND WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S.
MONDAY, A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOOK TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM, LOW-AMPLITUDE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COUPLE WITH CONTINUED MODEST WAA
WILL ALLOW HIGH TO MOVE BACK ABOUT NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. THESE HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN HIGH
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACTS TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRINGS
THE ONLY REALLY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS (LESS THAN 20%) TO THE
AREA MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WAA INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING HIGH SON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT
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