160
FXUS63 KEAX 180451
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES FOR
THE NEXT WEEK. A DEVELOPING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK. THIS REX BLOCK,
THAT EVOLVES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL LEAD TO A
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. LOCALLY, THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES BUILDING BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S (>70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND). WITH
THE GULF CLOSED AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
PATCHY FROST IN A FEW LOW LYING LOCATIONS. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES WARM
A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY LEADING TO THE WARMING TREND.
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK AS EAST
COAST TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST. A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY INCH
EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK, LEADING TO BUILDING RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND, THOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME VIS IMPACTS AT STJ; HOWEVER,
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR AND MO RIVER WATER TEMP COMBINED
WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND SHOULD KEEP AND VIS IMPACTS FROM BEING TOO
SIGNIFICANT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACCELERATE TOMORROW MIDDAY PEAKING
WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...PESEL
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