110
FXUS63 KEAX 190350
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1050 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURE TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND FOR FAR NW MISSOURI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST, WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
MONDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR
REFERENCE, NORMAL HIGHS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
START THE WEEK, AND FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY, WE'LL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUT AS THE UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES MID-LATE WEEK, WE'LL SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SO WE SHOULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. IT'S NOT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS MAY SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO
ENCROACH ON THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHEASTERN KS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THAT FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS BEFORE
WASHING OUT AND LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS THOUGH. ABOUT 45% OF 500MB CLUSTERS SHOW THE
RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY SPLITTING MISSOURI. THE REMAINING CLUSTERS
ARE EITHER FURTHER EAST OR WEAKER OVERALL WITH THE RIDGING BY
LATE IN THE WEEK TO THE WEEKEND. STRONGER RIDGING THAT IS
FURTHER WEST WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAKER RIDGING
OR FURTHER EAST RIDGING WOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH BKN CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED AROUND SUNRISE; MORE SO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS DISSIPATE AND SKY COVERAGE OPENS AFTER SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...PESEL
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