097
FXUS63 KEAX 201721
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EXTREME NW MO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TODAY, THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES HOWEVER, DRY AREA BELOW 10KFT WILL MOST LIKELY RELEGATE
PRECIPITATION (10-15%) TO VIRGA. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES TODAY HOWEVER, THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND
WEAK WAA WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT
CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE AND MAY ACTUALLY BE FURTHER REINFORCED BY A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING BACK WESTWARD FROM THE OHIO AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. CONSEQUENTLY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN 10-15% TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.
TOMORROW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. DESPITE WEAK MIXING, HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN HIGHS
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THURSDAY WILL PRESENT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS FORCING A SAGGING COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM AS
THE COLD FRONT STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 70S. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (15-30%) HOWEVER, MOISTURE
WILL BE MEAGER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEARER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BACK TO SSE THIS EVENING. A FEW
SPRINKLES, TO PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER, ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, BUT CHANCES
(10-15%) ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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