699
FXUS63 KEAX 210457
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE (10-15%) THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ONLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) FOR EXTREME
NW MO ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT 500-HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE AREA, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW TO THE WEST. ENERGY FROM THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LED
TO LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO,
HOWEVER, WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE LOWEST 10K FT,
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
CLOUD COVER, TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE, IS PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK AROUND 70F TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVER THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KS. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES WESTERN MO, AND WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT, A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE CWA.
RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WEAK WAA AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL YIELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S. BY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CENTERED OVERHEAD, WITH THE HEIGHT RISES AND
WAA BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY, A TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
RESULTING IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN MT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH
OF THE AREA, FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN MO, ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCES REMAIN LOW (15-30%) GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY LOW- LEVEL
AIR. ANOTHER TROUGH EJECTION ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCE
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW-TO-MID
60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.
BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT 10-15K IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
EXPECTED.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...BT
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