000
FXUS63 KEAX 210745
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE (10-15%) THROUGH MID-MORNING,
BUT MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY (20-50%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THESE RETURNS ARE
FALLING INTO DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT WHICH IS KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION
RELEGATED TO BRIEF VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES. THESE BRIEF SPRINKLES MAY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING WHEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. DESPITE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING WEAK MIXING TODAY, HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
WILL DRIVE HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL DRIVE HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA PROVIDING FURTHER HEIGHT RISES
COUPLED WITH MODEST WAA. THIS WILL AID IN HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID
70 TO NEAR 80.
BY SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE EASTERN ROCKIES WEAKENING AS IT DOES. THIS WILL
FORCE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE LOCAL
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70S. MONDAY, WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FINALLY FORCING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA PROVIDING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING SHOWER CHANCES AS THE
FRONT IS FORCING THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES IN MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLING HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.
BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT 10-15K IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
EXPECTED.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT
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