063
FXUS63 KEAX 211953
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHING OFF THE
WEST COAST AND OFF THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS OF 2 PM.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO OUR REGION TOMORROW AS THE WESTERN
TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS CONTINUING.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, MID/UPPER RIDGING
IN REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, BUT THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP GENERATE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
BY SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
MOST GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH
AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
(15% TO 20%). THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS JUST HOW MUCH
COLDER WILL TEMPERATURES BE, AS THE MOST RECENT NBM RUN SHOWS
THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR MAXT ON MONDAY AT MCI AS 63
AND 73 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY, AND 58 AND 73 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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