654
FXUS63 KEAX 220756
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
256 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE (20-40%) FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
QUITE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OZARKS
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ALOFT, A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL AID IN HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 DESPITE WEAK MIXING. FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE DIRECTLY OVER FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH MODEST WAA
DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND FORCE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST EXTENDING BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL INCREASE
WAA OVER THE AREA WHILE THE REGION STILL REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES,
AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA PROVIDING MODEST HEIGHT FALLS, CONTINUED WAA
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
AS HAS BEEN THE MODEL TREND HE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IS TYPICAL WITH
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO AN UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MONDAY NOW LOOKS TO STAY DRY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. MONDAY NIGHT, THE NOW
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND FORCES THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY CONTINUING SHOWER CHANCES AND RETURN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S . SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT
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