709
FXUS63 KEAX 221946
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
246 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. GENERAL COOL
DOWN EXPECTED STARTING NEXT TUESDAY.
- NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR NW MO AND NE KS (10-40 PERCENT).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
RIDGING AT UPPER LEVELS WITH COMPLIMENTARY HIGHS AT 850MB AND THE
SURFACE KEEP THE WEATHER PICTURE CONSISTENT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PUSH
WARM AIR NORTHWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
NW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THOSE HIGHS FROM GETTING TO OUT OF HAND,
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS STOUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS EVEN
MIGRATING A LITTLE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SLOWS THE
MOVEMENTS OF A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND SETS UP THE AXIS OF FLOW WEST
OF OUR REGION KEEPING PASSING STORM SYSTEMS TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY BEFORE WE EXPECT SOME SIGNIFICANT
MOVEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A TROUGH ACROSS MID
LATITUDES OF CANADA INDENTS THE CENTRAL CONUS HIGH JUST ENOUGH
TO RELEASE THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ON SHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW SETS UP
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSIVE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEST TEXAS. AS THE PACIFIC NW LOW
MAKES ITS WAY FURTHER INLAND IT USHERS THE PREVIOUS STATIONARY
LOW THAT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY EVENING MORESO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOW
RANGING FROM 10-40 PERCENT EXTENDING FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO
POINTS NORTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN
PROPAGATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EASTWARD. EVEN THOUGH
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD MAKE ONE THINK THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE PRIMED FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE FROM A LOW TO MIDLEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EXPANDING WESTWARD YIELDS A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE LOW'S PASSING. THE QUESTION WOULD BE IF THE FRONT
IS ABLE TO KINEMATICALLY FORCE ASCENT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
STORMS. POCKETS OF ASCENT ARE LIKELY AS UPPER LEVEL CVA
COMPLIMENTS THE LOW LEVEL KINEMATICS OF THE COLD FRONT;
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THAT
ENVIRONMENT PROPAGATES. IF RAIN IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND,
PWAT VALES AROUND AN INCH PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT NOT AS INTENSE OR EXPANSIVE AS WE SAW ABOUT
A MONTH AGO.
LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED, THESE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVES OPEN UP
THE PATTERN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GENERAL DELINEATION
BETWEEN THE WARMER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OPENING UP AVENUES FOR COOLER
CANADIAN AIR TO BEGINNING WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS
TURNS HIGHS BACK DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES, YET STILL
ABOVE, AROUND 65-70 DEGREES (AVERAGE = 62). IT ALSO ADDS A BIT
MORE TURBULENCE TO THE PATTERN OPENING UP CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE NEXT WEEK PARTICULARLY NEXT
SATURDAY; ALTHOUGH, AT THIS TIME SCALE THERE IS A LOT THAT CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SKY COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT NO CATEGORY CHANGES
ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE AND ACCELERATE TO AROUND 8-12
KNOTS MID MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...PESEL
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