075
FXUS64 KEPZ 151706
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1006 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1003 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
- MINOR AND BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN KEEPING THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN A QUASI-ZONAL DRY WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PACIFIC WINTER STORM
SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
RESULTS WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN, WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY AND RUNNING ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WINDS GENERALLY IN THE LIGHT TO LOW-END MODERATE RANGE.
EXPECTED WEATHER WILL BE DRY, WITH ZERO, TO NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, AND POSSIBLY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
GETTING TO MIDWEEK, AFTER OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS, MODELS
HAVE COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT WITH BROAD-SCALE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT MEANS NO CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK. IT ALSO MEANS A WEAKER
VERSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING IN WEDNESDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS DRY THROUGHOUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY PERSISTENT, WITH ONLY MINOR 5
DEGREE DIPS BEHIND THE FRONTS, AND STAYING ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY LIGHT, WITH NOTICEABLE, BUT MINIMALLY
IMPACTFUL EAST BREEZES AND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTS. BOTTOM LINE IS
REALLY NO HAZARDOUS OUR IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AOB 12KTS
THROUGH 06Z THEN WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE N TO NE WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AT KDMN AND KTCS BETWEEN 09Z-15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
FOR TODAY AND THE WEEK AHEAD THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER A MIX OF
DRY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE. THIS MEANS DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH DAILY HIGHS
AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MID-DECEMBER AVERAGES.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER A RELAXED
WEST FLOW PATTERN, KEEPING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE
DRY, WITH NO STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH, AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW, WITH DAILY MINIMUMS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND NIGHTLY RECOVERY MODERATE IN THE 40 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE FAIRLY FLOW, VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL BE
WEAK, AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. ALL THESE MAKING
FOR MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION.
A GENERALLY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE DRY WITH NO PRECIPITATION, BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY
AND GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE MARGINAL, WITH ONLY SLIGHT BUMPS UPWARD IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 42 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 35 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 29 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 35 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 30 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 27 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 29 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 33 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 62 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 68 34 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 33 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 39 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 65 27 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 35 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 67 34 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 63 33 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 64 33 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 59 27 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 57 25 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 63 24 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 63 14 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 66 27 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 71 20 69 19 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 65 16 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 30 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 69 26 69 28 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 68 27 65 27 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 31 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 37 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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