314  
FXUS64 KEPZ 160525 AAB  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
1025 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1020 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.  
 
- MINOR AND BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND GUSTY  
EAST WINDS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024  
 
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION AS JET ENERGY REMAINS WELL  
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THIS QUICK FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY  
WILL BE THE NORM THIS WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT  
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE  
SOME MINOR TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP.  
 
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH, BUT THE  
ONLY REAL IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.  
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY MORNING DUE TO  
THE WINDS PICKING UP TO THE 5-15 MPH RANGE. FRONT BASICALLY WASHES  
OUT TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME AS TODAY  
WITH JUST A SMALL COOL DOWN UP NORTH FOR HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR  
TUESDAY AREAWIDE WITH COOL MORNING LOWS DOWN NEAR OR BELOW  
FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.  
 
THERE WILL BE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL U.S. TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHICH WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR INTO  
THE AREA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THIS FEATURE  
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWLANDS IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S. THERE IS STILL A MODEST SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS,  
BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN. NO MOISTURE TO WORK  
WITH, SO THE ENTIRE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND  
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE  
LOWLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT THEY  
HAVE BEEN RUNNING RECENTLY DUE TO A SMALL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
SHIFT NLY-NELY EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE AT MOST TERMINALS.  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH BE ACCOMPANY THE WEAK FROPA, PEAKING BTWN  
16/09Z AND 16/15Z. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL IN THE AFTN.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024  
 
NO REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL BE  
LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WEDNESDAY WHEN  
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE EAST TO NORTHEAST  
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE  
WEEK, EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. RH'S  
MON/TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS, BUT THEN INCREASE FOR THE LATER PART  
OF THE WEEK INTO THE 20S. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR MON AND POOR TO  
LOW END FAIR TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
EL PASO 39 68 37 70 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 42 67 41 69 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 35 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 32 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 29 51 33 53 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 35 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 30 67 30 69 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 27 67 27 69 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 67 35 69 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 29 67 31 69 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 33 69 33 71 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 37 63 39 65 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 34 68 33 70 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 33 65 33 67 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 65 38 67 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 27 64 25 66 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 35 67 35 69 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 34 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 33 63 35 65 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 33 60 37 62 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 27 61 31 63 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 25 59 27 61 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 24 59 26 61 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 29 62 29 64 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 27 63 29 65 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 14 64 16 66 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 27 65 28 67 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 20 69 22 69 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 16 65 18 67 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 30 65 32 67 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 26 69 26 69 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 27 65 27 67 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 66 31 68 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 37 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
NM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
FORECASTER...40-BREITREITER  
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