965
FXUS64 KEPZ 170539
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1039 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
- COLD FRONT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL MOST DAYS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TOP OUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. FOR
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA. A ~1040MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL DEVELOP IN IT'S WAKE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
DECENTLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENCROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAJORITY OF RECENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS PROGGED FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND
ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING MAINLY SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS AFTER
18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIN RH VALUES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-15% AREAWIDE, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SACS WHERE MIN RHS WILL BE BETWEEN 16-25%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE 7-12 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE WITH LIGHT (5-10 MPH) AND GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, EVENTUALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. WIND
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NE ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH BREEZY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. MIN
RH VALUES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE ABOVE 15% AREAWIDE WITH NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH NO MAJOR WINDS EVENTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMOKE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 68 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 36 68 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 33 65 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 65 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 29 49 24 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 63 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 65 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 30 67 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 66 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 66 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 66 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 33 73 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 39 63 38 54 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 33 69 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 33 64 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 66 40 59 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 30 65 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 30 68 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 65 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 33 63 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 31 65 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 30 58 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 29 58 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 24 63 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 66 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 29 64 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 65 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 29 66 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 19 71 20 65 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 66 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 65 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 28 69 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 67 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 33 70 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 38 68 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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