100
FXUS64 KEPZ 171051
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
351 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 233 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
- COLD FRONT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
WE WILL HAVE A WARM DAY TODAY AS ZONAL FLOW (WEST TO EAST) ALOFT
WILL KEEP US DRY AND GIVE US HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
PUSH ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS AND THAT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OUR WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND WILL BE GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS (20 TO 30 MPH) WILL OCCUR ON THE WEST SIDE OF AREA
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO RAIN AND REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY FOR CLOUDS EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOWN
5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY'S HIGHS, BUT THAT WILL ONLY COOL HIGHS
TO NEAR OR MAYBE EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND A STAGNANT PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF AND
WILL KEEP OUR SKIES CLEAR, OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND OUR
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE EXTENDED
MODELS ARE STILL DECIDING ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. RIGHT NOW BOTH DETERMINISTIC
EXTENDED MODELS, KEEP ANY WEATHER IMPACTS OUT OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE (THROUGH NEXT MONDAY).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING MAINLY SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS AFTER
18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
OUR WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT, THEN TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND SWING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. WE
WILL HAVE LOW END GUSTY EAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. MIN
RH'S WILL BE IN THE TEENS TODAY AND THEN AT OR ABOVE 20% THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE MIN RH'S IN THE
TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR TODAY AND FAIR TO GOOD ON
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 40 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 36 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 34 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 32 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 23 41 27 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 34 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 65 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 34 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 30 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 41 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 67 34 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 34 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 38 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 69 35 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 34 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 39 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 65 32 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 68 33 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 34 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 63 33 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 65 27 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 59 26 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 58 25 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 64 24 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 34 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 32 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 65 30 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 67 30 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 72 21 66 19 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 66 33 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 36 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 69 32 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 68 31 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 33 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 68 39 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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