109
FXUS64 KEPZ 180005
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
505 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 457 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS
AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
- DRY AND MILD DECEMBER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
LOW IMPACT WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH
THE POLAR JET TRACK FIXED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, DRY AND
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY WEEK.
MAIN HEADLINE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REACH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
LIKELY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND NOTED BY A STRENGTHENING OF NE/E
FLOW. BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES. WIND GUSTS IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE WILL BE MOST COMMON. THESE BREEZY WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE, A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID-DECEMBER. WEDNESDAY'S LOWLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S, ONLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE AN ALMOST IMMEDIATE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE
VERY BENIGN WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
TOWARD THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK, GLANCING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT LOCAL
TERMINALS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES FEW250 THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS 200-240 AOB 5 KNOTS. FROPA BETWEEN 09-12Z
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO 020-050 AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, DIMINISHING
TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. MIN RH 20-30% WITH EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL KEEP
SMOKE VENTILATION POOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RH
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PROLONGED WARM AND DRY PERIOD IS
FORECASTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.
FUEL MOISTURE IS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 35 57 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 62 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 32 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 45 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 58 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 36 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 60 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 62 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 33 60 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 33 64 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 55 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 34 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 33 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 61 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 31 60 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 33 62 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 60 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 33 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 27 51 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 54 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 25 52 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 24 55 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 58 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 32 59 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 62 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 59 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 21 69 19 71 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 36 58 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 32 62 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 31 59 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 33 60 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 38 57 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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