305
FXUS64 KEPZ 181140
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
440 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 431 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS MORNING, BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS
AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY QUIET EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAINS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THE WINDS ARE BREEZY
DUE TO AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE MILD SIDE. FOR TODAY, THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE BORDERLAND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
IN THE MUCH OF VALLEYS AND 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY MATURES. AS THIS BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES BEING ON THE COOLER SIDE, THEY
WILL STILL BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND IT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. THE
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WINDS, THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREE COOLER ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWLANDS THAT WHAT THEY WILL BE THIS MORNING WHILE STILL REMAINING
ABOVE THE AVERAGE. FOR THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET WITH A
QUASI FLAT RIDGE ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO WELL
ABOVE THE NORMAL BY THEN.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THERE WILL
BE AT TIMES THE BREEZY WINDS AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA ENHANCING LEE CYCLONES
WITH THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY UNCHANGED AND ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS OF THE NOW, CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS AS A TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WITH SKC AND CIG FEW-BKN250. THE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOW END BREEZY THIS MORNING BEFORE 18Z AT KELP, KTCS AND KLRU (5
TO 13 KTS) AND OUT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 10 KTS THERE AFTER ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED SITES.
THEY WILL THEN INCREASE AT KDMN AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 23 KTS BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. THE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE LIGHT BELOW 10 KTS WHILE OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE NO REDUCTION IN THE VSBY ACROSS
THE RUNWAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
FOR TODAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY AND BREEZY TO AT TIMES
WINDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER,
WILL BE ABOVE THE AVERAGE DESPITE BEING 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WITH THIS WERE YESTERDAY. TONIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TO
GOOD. FOR THURSDAY, DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE 20FT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE THE AVERAGE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO BREEZY WHILE TO TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE MIN RHS TODAY BE WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20% IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 25 TO 35% IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MIN RHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT DRIER IN THE MOUNTAINS (20 TO 25%) AND A BIT MORE MOIST IN
THE LOWER LOWLANDS (20 TO 25%). THE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE
POOR TO GOOD TODAY THEN POOR ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 37 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 33 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 33 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 30 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 28 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 31 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 57 33 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 60 30 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 28 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 38 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 58 28 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 31 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 35 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 32 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 33 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 38 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 29 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 60 29 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 32 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 31 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 50 31 67 28 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 52 29 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 50 27 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 52 24 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 31 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 57 28 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 60 30 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 58 28 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 67 19 71 21 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 62 30 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 56 32 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 60 27 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 27 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 29 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 35 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...36-TEXEIRA
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