008
FXUS64 KEPZ 191134
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
434 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 432 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS ARE QUIET WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER BRINGING QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OUR
AREA. THE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY, THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE; THUS, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NON-ACTIVE WITH
RIDGING ALOFT. DUE TO THIS, THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR FRIDAY,
SOMEWHAT OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT THAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT THEY WILL BE
TODAY COURTESY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH BOXING DAY (NEXT WEEK THURSDAY). A
STORM SYSTEM TO OUR FAR NORTH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE ALOFT ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO BE UNCHANGED. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN
THE LOWLANDS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS ROCKIES KEEPING MORE OF A FLAT RIDGE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT MONDAY TO TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING, AND AS IT DOES, A LEE CYCLONE IS
GOING TO FORM AND BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SET UP TO BREEZY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS MORNING ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND WITH THE STRONGEST SET OF WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE HIGH TERRAINS. ALSO, AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH,
IT MAY SEND A COLD FRONT OUR WAY CHRISTMAS NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WITH SKC AND CIG FEW-SCT250. THE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT BELOW 10 KTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. THERE WILL
BE NO REDUCTION IN THE VSBY ACROSS THE RUNWAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE 20FT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORMAL. TONIGHT RECOVERY WILL
BE FAIR TO GOOD. FOR FRIDAY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE 20FT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE AVERAGE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THERE
WILL BE CARBON COPY OF THE FRIDAY'S WEATHER EACH CONSECUTIVE DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONES.
THE MIN RHS BOTH TODAY AND ON FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW 31%
AREAWIDE. THE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MAINLY POOR THROUGH
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 40 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 34 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 35 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 27 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 34 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 35 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 65 32 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 31 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 41 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 65 30 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 32 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 37 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 65 35 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 35 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 40 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 66 30 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 63 34 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 33 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 66 29 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 61 29 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 60 27 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 62 27 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 65 34 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 63 30 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 67 32 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 64 30 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 73 21 71 20 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 67 32 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 35 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 67 30 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 28 63 27 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 32 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 65 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...36-TEXEIRA
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