371
FXUS64 KEPZ 201132
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
432 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 429 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS ARE QUIET WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR
SKIES AND THE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. FOR TODAY, CONDITIONS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
YESTERDAY'S WEATHER, IS THIS RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FROM WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. FOR TONIGHT, THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
RIDGE IN PLACE. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE COOL, BUT WILL BE ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SATURDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE NON-ACTIVE WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARNING A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE LOWLANDS WITH THE
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE NON-PRECIPITATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS MOST OF THE STORM SYSTEMS FROM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF US LEAVING US UNDER THEIR DRY BASES.
THE FIRST SERIES OF STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY WHILE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO
STATE MAINLY FLAT. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE PLAINS BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THAT AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURES DURING ALL OF THIS WILL BE UNCHANGED
AS EACH DAY THEY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THAT THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURES BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. AS IT DOES, A LEE
CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP AND BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY). THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE ROCKIES BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE BORDERLAND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE 2 TO 6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY WILL BE THE PREVIOUS DAY, BUT STILL ABOVE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. UNCERTAINTY LIES BEYOND THURSDAY WITH
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUGGESTING A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE BORDERLAND CONTINUING TO BE AT ITS DRY
BASE WHILE THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SUGGESTING A CLOSED OFF LOW
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE WAS
NO MENTION OF THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 429 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WITH SKC AND CIG FEW-SCT250. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BELOW 10 KTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE NO
REDUCTION IN THE VSBY ACROSS THE RUNWAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY. THE 20FT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE AVERAGE. TONIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
FAIR TO VERY GOOD. FOR SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
TO THAT OF TODAY; HOWEVER, WITH ONE EXCEPTION, DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. LIGHT 20FT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET. THE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO LOW END BREEZY AND THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE AVERAGE.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONES.
THE MIN RHS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20% IN THE LOWLANDS AND
BETWEEN 25 AND 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MIN RHS ON SATURDAY WILL
DECREASE BY 3 TO 6% AREAWIDE. THE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE
MAINLY POOR THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 40 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 36 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 64 35 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 33 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 30 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 33 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 35 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 31 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 29 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 40 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 61 30 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 33 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 39 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 34 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 34 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 41 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 62 31 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 65 31 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 63 33 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 34 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 57 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 30 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 58 26 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 62 33 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 61 29 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 63 31 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 61 30 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 70 19 72 18 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 64 32 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 61 33 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 66 28 69 30 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 63 28 67 27 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 31 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 64 38 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...36-TEXEIRA
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