050
FXUS64 KEPZ 202328
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
428 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS MILD TO WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ITS ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH WILL VARY SOME EACH DAY, BUT THE
RESULT WILL BE THE SAME: TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LIGHT WINDS. A WAVE-TRAIN WILL SET-UP BEGINNING SUNDAY THAT WILL
FLATTEN THIS RIDGE. THE FIRST WAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY. THE SECOND TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE
AFFECT TO OUR WEATHER EXCEPT TO TRIM HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. A S/W RIDGE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
PASSES ON WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS LOW IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
ITS PREDECESSORS, BUT STILL NOT SUPER IMPACTFUL. ITS JET WILL
PASS OVER THE US-MEXICO BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT LEE CYCLONE
ACROSS NORTHERN NM, BUT THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL ON
THE WEAK-SIDE. THUS, IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD/WARM FOR
CHRISTMAS.
WE SEE ANOTHER S/W RIDGE FOR THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER S/W
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRENGTH/TIMING
OF THIS LOW WELL WITH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. LOOKING AT NBM
SPREADS AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS, THE FORECAST FAVORS BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH MINOR COOLING BEHIND IT AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC-FEW250.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 3-7 KNOTS OUT OF THE N/NW OR VRB.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR SATURDAY WITH
FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. VENTING WILL BE POOR FOR
SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 37 64 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 34 67 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 32 65 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 29 52 31 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 34 65 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 29 67 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 67 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 65 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 65 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 33 68 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 39 59 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 34 66 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 34 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 65 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 29 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 67 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 65 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 34 63 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 31 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 29 59 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 63 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 29 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 67 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 29 65 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 19 72 18 72 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 67 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 64 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 29 70 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 27 67 28 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 68 33 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 39 68 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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