553
FXUS64 KEPZ 142040
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
140 PM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
- DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A PACIFIC STORM MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW. STORM ALSO BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME BLOWING DUST ON FRIDAY.
- SEVERAL SURGES OF COLD AIR BEGIN MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT WEEK'S TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE UL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES EAST AND A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE PACIFIC.
THIS PATTERN HAS KEPT US COOL WITH ONLY A SLOW WARM UP, AND THAT
WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE US-MEXICO BORDER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ABSORBING INTO THE MAIN FLOW AND CROSSING NM
ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SWING THE H500 JET ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN NM AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA WITH A BROAD LEE LOW OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON FRIDAY WITH BLOWING DUST
AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH THE MAIN CONCERNS. MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW, BUT PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DECREASED
ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY, MAJOR WEATHER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. A S/W TROUGH WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS WELL INTO THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE SIBERIAN AIR SOUTHWARD WITH A 1050+ MB HIGH.
THE FIRST DOSE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT / SUNDAY AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP IN FOR MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SHARPENS TO OUR NORTH. THE CURRENT NBM HAS ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DECREASE FOR MONDAY, PLACING IT AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS FURTHER AND BEGINS TO SWEEP SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, EVEN MORE COLD
AIR IS ALLOWED TO SEEP INTO THE THE CWA. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
US NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE, BUT 25TH PERCENTILE KEEPS MUCH OF
THE CWA BELOW FREEZING FOR UP TO 48 HOURS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. KEEP MONITORING THE FORECAST AND MAKE COLD WEATHER
PREPARATIONS NOW WHILE THE WEATHER IS NICE. IT WILL GET COLDER,
BUT HOW COLD IS YET TO BE SEEN.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SNOW PROSPECTS. THE
S/W PROJECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY LOOKS WEAKER THAN THE
12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO WHEN LOOKING AT CLUSTER ANALYSIS.
LATEST GFS AND EURO CREATE A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE AND GIVEN
STRONG COOLING, CHURN OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT GIVEN ENSEMBLE
DATA, I AM VERY SKEPTICAL TO US SEEING MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT
FLURRIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-FEW250.
WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST (000-030, EXCEPT DMN 040-060). ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS, ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS ARE IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR OR JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. ERCS ARE NEAR THE 50TH
PERCENTILE WHILE MIN RH VALUES KEEP ABOVE 15%, WHICH WILL HELP
PRECLUDE FIRE CONCERNS FOR THAT DAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE THE DRIEST
AIR THOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS, BUT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. VENTING WILL BE POOR TO FAIR THROUGH
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 31 56 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 26 53 30 59 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 26 54 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 20 52 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 13 37 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 22 48 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 22 50 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 24 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 18 55 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 32 55 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 23 54 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 23 59 29 64 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 28 50 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 25 57 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 26 53 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 30 52 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 20 52 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 22 54 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 26 54 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 23 51 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 16 47 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 15 45 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 15 44 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 11 45 14 50 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 22 48 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 20 50 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 18 52 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 17 52 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 7 60 12 63 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 19 54 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 23 50 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 19 55 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 20 52 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 22 52 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 27 50 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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