459
FXUS64 KEPZ 161109
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
409 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
- A PACIFIC STORM BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST FOR
FRIDAY.
- SEVERAL SURGES OF COLD AIR BEGIN MOVING IN LATE ON SATURDAY
WITH NEXT WEEK'S TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE TODAY IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS INTO THE LOW 60S FOR EL PASO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CUT-OFF
LOW FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON TODAY AS THE REX BLOCK IN NOCAL
BREAKS DOWN. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TONIGHT
AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW.
THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY FRIDAY,
GENERATING A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE/OK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE ABOUT 8MB, ENOUGH TO
CREATE A BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE 850MB WINDS ARE 35-40KTS. WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AS YOU
HEAD NORTH AND WEST. A GENERAL 25-35 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND EAST SLOPES
OF THE SACS, ORGANS, AND FRANKLINS. BLOWING DUST IS A THREAT
LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS, A PROLONGED DRY
SPELL, AND BETTER GUST POTENTIAL (TOP OF MIXED LAYER SHOWS
35-40KTS). PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE TROUGH'S
PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH THE GILA REGION HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL KIND OF BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS AND AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGER
DURING THE DAY, GENERALLY 15-25 MPH IN SIMILAR AREAS AS FRIDAY. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME SAT NIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN IT REACHES THE CWA. THIS IS THE FIRST OF
MANY SHOTS OF COLD AIR FOR US AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS
SHIFT EASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY SUN AM AS COLD AIR SPILLS IN
FROM THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT QUICKLY
SWINGS BY SAT NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS
MOISTURE AND BE TOO FAR EAST TO IMPACT OUR AREA. SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED, BUT A SNOW FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE SACS.
FOR MONDAY, A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES TO THE
CENTRAL US IN THE FORM OF A ~1050MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO -5C TUES, SO THERE'S A MEDIUM CHANCE SURFACE TEMPS DON'T GET
OUT OF THE 30S DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WARMER FOR NEXT WEEK SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY DUE TO A WEAKER
HIGH PRESSURE. TUES AM LOWS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD,
INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AND NOW A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF DIPPING
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF EL PASO. AM LOWS WILL BE QUITE
SIMILAR FOR WED. THERE'S A HIGH CHANCE WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS ARE PROJECTED TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS TUES AM. TEMPS BEGIN TO
MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT STAYING BELOW
AVERAGE.
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW DURING THE COLD SPELL WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MON-TUES DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE STAYS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST, FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LIMIT ANY MAJOR IMPACTS. SLIGHT POPS
REMAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW AS THE MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AOB
10KTS CONTINUE, BEGINNING NORTHERLY AND BECOMING VARIABLE INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THEN BECOME
GUSTY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE'S A HIGH CHANCE AN AWW WILL BE
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY. SCT-BKN200-250 PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WINDIER AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. 20-FT WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
STAY NEAR OR ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY HOWEVER. THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR FRIDAY. FUELS ARE GENERALLY MOIST
WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH. WHERE FUELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DRY IN FWZS 110 AND 111, WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. BREEZY WEST
WINDS CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY, RESULTING IN AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER. WINDS SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AS COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN BY TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MON-TUES.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-35% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 10-30% BY SUNDAY.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR TODAY, THEN MOSTLY
EXCELLENT FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 42 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 39 57 31 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 58 36 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 30 57 25 / 0 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 24 34 20 / 0 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 32 58 29 / 0 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 29 47 26 / 0 10 0 0
DEMING 59 32 57 28 / 0 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 26 54 22 / 0 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 41 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 34 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 66 37 63 33 / 10 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 57 37 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 64 39 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 37 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 40 58 35 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 28 57 26 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 59 29 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 37 57 33 / 0 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 34 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 31 47 25 / 0 0 10 0
MESCALERO 51 27 45 21 / 0 0 10 0
TIMBERON 51 24 44 20 / 0 0 10 0
WINSTON 51 21 51 20 / 0 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 31 55 27 / 0 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 55 25 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 14 47 12 / 0 10 10 0
HURLEY 56 27 51 23 / 0 10 0 0
CLIFF 64 21 56 16 / 0 20 10 0
MULE CREEK 59 18 50 14 / 0 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 55 31 50 28 / 0 10 0 0
ANIMAS 62 28 57 22 / 0 20 0 0
HACHITA 59 29 56 24 / 0 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 35 57 28 / 0 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 59 35 51 28 / 0 20 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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