650
FXUS64 KEPZ 172335
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 425 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST IN THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS AROUND 45 MILES PER
HOUR.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS COLD SNAP LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
WINDS SUBSIDING TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH AN
EXITING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND EAST
SLOPES, IN PARTICULAR NE EL PASO, WSMR, AND THE HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, BUT NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS
TODAY. WEST FLOW 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE MOST COMMON, WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE RIGHT NEAR
NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY, BUT ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY.
1050MB SASKATCHEWAN SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW ARCTIC-SOURCED AIR TO
SPILL DOWN THE SOUTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PART OF A LONG-TERM COLD SNAP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CENTRAL OF EASTERN US THIS WEEK. LOCALLY, THIS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH US LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, INDICATED BY THE SUDDEN
WIND SHIFT TO THE ENE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST COOL DOWN
OF 8-12 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS, KEEPING US BELOW CLIMATE
NORMALS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE ISN'T QUITE AS
SEVERE WITH THIS COOL DOWN, AND MOST MODELS KEEP EL PASO'S HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
PUSH OF COLD AIR IS TIMED FOR NEXT TUESDAY, REINFORCING COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST
OF THE PERIOD, AND THERE'S GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY EAST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES MAY WARRANT COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS AS WIND CHILLS FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.
UNLIKE OUR LAST COLD SNAP, THIS PATTERN LOOKS QUITE DRY AND SNOW
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK LOOKS DRY LOCALLY, BUT
STILL COOL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS, PERHAPS TEETERING ON THE LINE OF MVFR DUE
TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM BLDU. HAVEN'T SEEN TOO BAD OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWEST BEING ~5SM,
IT SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A HZ ELEVATED IN THE AIR. ONLY A COUPLE
MORE HOURS UNTIL WE START WINDING DOWN WITH REGARDS TO THE WINDS
AND DUST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
FOR TERMINALS WITH WINDS 28015G25KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BE LESS WINDY THAN TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. LLWS IS
FAIRLY LIKELY AT KELP, OTHER TERMINALS MAY SEE LLWS OVERNIGHT BUT
DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY THOUGH WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY. GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH VERY GOOD SMOKE VENTILATION. MIN RH 20-30%
UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY MORNING WILL REINTRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY WILL
QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE WEST ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS EAST FLOW PUSHES MORE COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION. MIN RH WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE 15-25% RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 38 60 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 31 56 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 32 58 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 26 54 18 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 19 32 9 27 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 28 58 21 47 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 26 49 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 58 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 22 55 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 59 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 31 59 21 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 62 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 52 20 41 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 33 61 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 33 57 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 58 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 57 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 26 60 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 58 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 28 55 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 47 11 40 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 21 42 11 36 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 19 44 9 34 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 19 51 9 44 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 26 58 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 23 56 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 49 17 45 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 23 51 16 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 12 58 7 53 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 53 18 48 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 28 53 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 23 58 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 24 56 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 28 58 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 28 53 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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