556
FXUS64 KEPZ 181721
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1021 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
- MILD AND DRY, BUT CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY. PATCHY BLOWING
DUST NEAR SOURCE REGIONS. PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MILES PER HOUR.
- COLD FRONT PUSHED IN TONIGHT. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SUB-FREEZING MORNINGS AREA WIDE, AND BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- LOOKING DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND BEFORE
WE SEE A WEEK OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND TWO STRONG
COLD FRONTS. TODAY WE CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY AS A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW. IT IS ANOTHER DRY
SYSTEM, WITH NO MOISTURE OR FEW TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WESTERLY AND AT LEAST BE BREEZY. HOWEVER, DUE TO LESSER
SURFACE GRADIENT, THEY SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 MPH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY'S WINDY CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING DUST, BUT THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP IT MINOR OVER OUR
MOST POPULATED LOCALES. EXPECT SOME LOCAL DUST EFFECTS, NEAR
SOURCE REGION, AND SOME WIDESPREAD HAZY SKIES POSSIBLE IN THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOONS, BUT NO BIG IMPACTS EXPECTED. THIS AFTERNOON'S
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR YESTERDAY'S WITH HIGHS NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE TODAY.
TONIGHT WE WELCOME, WHETHER WE WANT TO OR NOT, THE NEXT STRETCH OF
COOLER WEATHER, WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AS
TODAY'S UPPER TROUGH EXITS TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT IS PUSHED BY A 1053MB
HIGH SAGGING S OUT OF WESTERN CANADA, WITH ARCTIC AIR RIDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS STATES. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE
COOLER AIR MOVE IN WITH GUSTY AND BREEZY NE WINDS. WIND CHILLS
OVER THE SACS, OTERO, AND HUDSPETH COUNTY WILL BE IN THE 5-10F
RANGE. THUS WE WILL ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
STARTING SUNDAY OUR TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY'S COOL DOWN WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE, BUT MODERATE, COOL DOWN OF 10-12 DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGH AVERAGING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN MONDAY NIGHT TO BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS WILL BE QUITE
CHILLY, STARTING TONIGHT, WITH ALL AREAS BELOW FREEZING. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS) WILL BE THE
COLDEST. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO HAVE STRONGER NE
WINDS WITH THE FROPA, TO SLAM APPARENT TEMPS/WIND CHILL QUITE
LOW...SO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE MOST PART THE COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSAGES
ALOFT, ARE DRY FOR OUR REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH AN INCH
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CURRENT POSSIBILITIES.
NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL SEE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS, WITH A
WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL AND ABOVE TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER COOLER SURGE FOR THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 957 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AHEAD OF A
STOUT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC AS LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT, THUS LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH AROUND 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AT EACH TAF SITE. N/NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN
BEFORE TURNING N AFTER PASSAGE IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AT KTCS,
THEN AROUND 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY TODAY, WITH CONTINUED BREEZY AND
GUSTY WEST WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION, DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY, DO TO LIGHTER SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS, BUT SPEEDS STILL EXPECTED IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE FOR MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MINRH WILL
AGAIN FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS ALL THE LOWLANDS, WITH MOUNTAIN
AREAS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. THE SYSTEM IS VERY DRY, WITH FEW
TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THE FIRST OF TWO STRONG COLD FRONTS PUSHES IN FROM THE N
AND NE. THIS IS ARCTIC AIR, WITH COLDER AIR FROM THE ARCTIC, OUT
OF WESTERN CANADA. SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY, DAILY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW MID-JANUARY NORMALS. NIGHTS AND MORNING WILL BE
COLD, AND BELOW FREEZING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THE SECOND COLD FRONT PUSHES IN MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS, AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ARE QUITE DRY. ONLY THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE AT ANY PRECIPITATION, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THE NORTHERN GILA REGION MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW.
OTHERWISE, DRY FOR ALL AREAS, WITH MARGINAL NIGHT TIME RH RECOVER,
AND LOW MINRH EACH AFTERNOON, AND NO PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE
SOME BREEZY AND GUSTY NE TO E WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED
AFTER TODAY'S BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.
VERY GOOD AND EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL FALL TOMORROW, THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REDUCING BOTH TRANSPORT WINDS, AND MIXING DEPTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 28 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 18 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 23 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 16 43 21 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 8 26 15 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 21 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 19 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 58 20 49 20 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 19 49 19 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 27 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 20 42 17 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 20 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 19 41 25 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 24 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 24 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 25 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 19 45 20 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 61 19 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 24 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 19 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 9 40 19 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 43 9 36 16 / 0 10 0 0
TIMBERON 44 7 34 13 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 51 9 43 13 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 18 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 56 16 44 18 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 16 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 52 16 45 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 59 6 53 8 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 53 18 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 19 43 24 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 59 19 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 19 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 22 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 25 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...41-KELLY
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