082
FXUS64 KEPZ 242338
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
438 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 422 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
- WARMING WITH AFTERNOON BREEZINESS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
OUR PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL. SOME
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS SWEPT UP AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE, RESULTING IN INCREASED CIRRUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW GIVES US BREEZIER AFTERNOON WINDS SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, A LOBE OF ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CA REGION. THIS WON'T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED
BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. BY MIDWEEK, THE
BOWLING BALL OF A CUT-OFF LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD AROUND A REX BLOCK
SITUATED OVER THE PACNW.
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW,
PROBABLY BECAUSE WE HAVE IMPROVED SAMPLING OF THE SYSTEM IN ITS
CURRENT STATE. THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE LOW IS ALONG THE AZ-MEXICO
BORDER ON WEDNESDAY, THEN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NM BY
FRIDAY. THE 0Z GUIDANCE WAS AS DIFFERENT AS YOU CAN GET IN TERMS
OF SNOW POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO (GFS WAS
VERY SNOWY WHILE EURO HAD BASICALLY NOTHING). THE RESPECTIVE 12Z
MODELS ARE NOW MORE IN LINE, TRENDING TOWARDS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, BOTH GROUPS OF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
LOW CHANCES (10-40%) OF SEEING 1" OR MORE IN THE LOWLANDS. THE
EURO MEAN IS MORE BULLISH ON SNOWFALL THAN THE GFS WITH THE 12Z
RUNS. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME TO SEE PRECIPITATION IS WED-THU
AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE FAVORED TO RECEIVE RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH, BUT NOT AS COLD
AS WE WERE THIS WEEK. IF WE DO GET PRECIP, THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE
MOSTLY RAIN, BUT COULD SEE BETTER SNOW CHANCES IF THE LOW TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW, LOW PRECIP CHANCES ARE IN THE GRIDS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND MOISTURE CONTENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING SCT180
BKN/OVC200-250 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 7-10 KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE MAINLY
EAST/NORTHEAST AOB 7 KNOTS AFTER 04Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
SATURDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN
BREEZIER WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ERCS ARE IN THE 70-90TH PERCENTILE. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD, HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH
MODEST AFTERNOON BREEZES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATER NEXT
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
MIN RHS WILL BE 10-20% SATURDAY, THEN 15-30% EARLY NEXT WEEK. VENT
RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD EAST OF THE RGV, GOOD TO EXCELLENT
TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 29 63 36 64 / 0 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 27 64 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 23 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 21 59 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 41 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 23 59 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 24 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 19 64 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 19 64 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 30 62 36 64 / 0 10 0 0
DELL CITY 19 63 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 24 69 30 70 / 0 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 28 58 30 56 / 0 10 0 0
FABENS 24 65 32 67 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 24 61 31 63 / 0 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 28 60 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 19 59 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 19 63 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 23 63 31 65 / 0 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 22 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 55 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 22 51 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 19 51 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 19 54 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 23 61 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 19 59 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 14 55 16 55 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 19 59 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 18 63 21 65 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 15 57 19 58 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 24 58 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 21 67 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 19 65 27 66 / 0 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 66 32 67 / 0 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 33 59 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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