892
FXUS64 KEPZ 251723
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1023 AM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 AM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
- WARMER, MORE TYPICAL JANUARY TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SIXTIES.
- NEXT WINTER STORM SYSTEM TIMED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WITH
MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWLAND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
WE'LL FINALLY SEE WARMER WEATHER TODAY AFTER A FULL WEEK OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN A WARMER
AIRMASS, ALLOWING LOWLAND HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 60S FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN AT LEAST A WEEK. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
LATE JANUARY. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PACIFIC-
SOURCES AIRMASS, WITH MORE SUN PEEKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO FOCUS ON THIS WEEK WILL BE A
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG RIDGING
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW THIS UPPER LOW TO HANG JUST TO
OUR WEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS IN A DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK WARM, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID-60S AND MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINING DRY LOCALLY.
WEATHER FOCUS NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND BRINGS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN
RATHER GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE,
BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ON THURSDAY AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR THE NM HIGH TERRAIN IS LIKELY, AND WE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
LOWLAND SNOW AS WELL. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A LOW (10-25%) CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE (>0.1") SNOW ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING (30-50%) NORTH ALONG I-25 INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE
WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK
COULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE SNOW TOTALS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN,
BUT A SOUTHWARD (OR SLOWER) TREND COULD INCREASE SNOW CHANCES.
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS SNOW FORECASTS SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE
LOWER OUTCOME, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL DRY-SLOTTING AND LIKELY SLOW
TOP-DOWN COOLING METHOD THAT WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LOWLAND WINTER
WEATHER.
FOR NOW, EXPECT A LOWLAND WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MODEL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS
CLOSELY BEFORE ISSUING OFFICIAL SNOW TOTALS IN THE COMING DAYS.
SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER THAN
SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT KTCS, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AOB
10KTS CONTINUE, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. SCT-BKN150-250 PERSIST WITH
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
AFTERNOON 20-FOOT WINDS 15-25 MPH TODAY LEADING TO GOOD TO VERY
GOOD VENTILATION RATES. MIN RH 10-20% THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE SUNDAY THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH LOW-END BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BETTER MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH IN THE
25-35% RANGE, KEEPING FIRE DANGER LOW. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY AS A WINTER STORM SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 36 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 28 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 29 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 26 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 28 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 57 29 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 63 27 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 27 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 37 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 63 25 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 31 70 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 31 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 65 31 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 31 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 36 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 28 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 26 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 31 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 30 60 32 / 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 56 24 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 51 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 23 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 55 20 55 19 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 60 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 58 25 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 28 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 59 24 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 64 17 63 17 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 57 28 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 67 31 67 28 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 66 28 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 33 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 60 35 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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