886
FXUS64 KEPZ 252342
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
442 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 440 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE 60'S.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK, BRINGING COOLER
AIR AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
- THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IMPACTS AND WHICH AREAS
WILL SEE SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AHEAD
OF A CUT-OFF LOW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. CONTINUED BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LOW SPINS AWAY OVER THE SOCAL/LAS
VEGAS REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER S AZ, PULLING MOISTURE
WESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK GIVES US A BETTER CHANCE OF A DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA WED-THU BEFORE THE CORE PUSHES THROUGH
NM BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN NM AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW. THE COMBINATION OF A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT AND A NOT-QUITE
COLD ENOUGH SYSTEM MAKES ME THINK THE LOWLANDS HAVE A LOW CHANCE TO
SEE MUCH IMPACT FROM SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE GEFS HAS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON SNOW POTENTIAL, WITH THE
90TH PERCENTILE NOW SHOWING ABOUT A TRACE IN EL PASO AND 1" OR
LESS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. EVEN THE MEDIAN GIVES THE SACS ONLY 1"
IN TOTAL. THE EURO ENSEMBLE IS VERY SIMILAR FOR THE 50TH
PERCENTILE, BUT THE HIGH-END SCENARIO GIVES THE LOWLANDS 2-5". THE
12Z OPERATIONAL EURO, FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, IS IN LINE WITH THAT
HIGH-END SCENARIO. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE LOWLANDS GET
MOSTLY RAIN WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 4KFT THU NIGHT. THE MOUNTAINS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN WITH A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES (UP TO 1" VS. 6-12").
FORTUNATELY, WE STILL HAVE A FEW DAYS FOR THE FORECAST TO COME
TOGETHER AND THE MODELS TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
UNSURE OF WHEN THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, COULD BE ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY
EVENING-FRIDAY MORNING. ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH,
BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE WERE THIS WEEK. HIGHS DIP INTO THE 40S THU-
FRI, BUT LOW TEMPS WON'T BE FRIGID DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK
OF A BACKDOOR FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW100 SCT-BKN250. SURFACE
WINDS: SOUTHWEST 10-15G25 KNOTS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 7-10 KNOTS TO THE EAST. AFTER 04Z WINDS BECOMING
MOSTLY VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE
WEEK, BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHERE FUELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY
(70-90TH PERCENTILE). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY, RESULTING IN ISOLATED ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STAYS NEAR ZERO UNTIL
WEDNESDAY WHEN A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW
MIX FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN COOLING TO BELOW
AVERAGE LATER IN THE WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 12-30% THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 30-55% BY
THURSDAY. VENT RATES RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY GOOD FOR SUNDAY WEST
OF THE RGV, VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MONDAY; POOR TO GOOD EAST OF
THE RGV SUNDAY, FAIR TO VERY GOOD FOR MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 36 66 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 28 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 63 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 29 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 42 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 28 61 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 29 57 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 27 64 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 65 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 65 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 25 59 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 71 31 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 31 69 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 31 64 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 62 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 26 65 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 31 66 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 61 32 66 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 24 55 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 52 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 23 51 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 20 56 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 29 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 25 61 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 18 56 16 58 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 24 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 64 22 68 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 20 58 19 59 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 30 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 31 68 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 66 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 33 68 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 61 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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