375
FXUS64 KEPZ 260905
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
205 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 200 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE MID SIXTIES.
- COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES,
BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A LOWLAND WINTRY MIX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
WARMER WEATHER TODAY AFTER LAST WEEK'S EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MILD JANUARY
TEMPERATURES, ALLOWING LOWLAND HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER-TO-
MID 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN AT LEAST A WEEK. TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY. VERY SIMILAR
WEATHER ON MONDAY, LOW-END BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO FOCUS ON THIS WEEK IS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. STRONG RIDGING OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW THIS
UPPER LOW TO HANG TO OUR WEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN A DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. COOLER PACIFIC AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
CROSSES ARIZONA AND APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA, COOLING LOWLAND
HIGHS BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
WEATHER FOCUS NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AREA WIDE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK OF THE LOW, WHICH IN TURN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED QPF FOR
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY BE A FACTOR IN (1) KEEPING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST LOWLAND SNOW CHANCES
AND (2) HINDERING MID-LEVEL MOISTENING TO PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LATEST FORECAST CALLS
FOR LIGHT AND MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (2-4") FOR THE NM HIGH
TERRAIN, SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND BLACK RANGE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LOWLAND SNOW TOTALS, MOST LIKELY T-1" ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
NOTHING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR/INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE BOTH TRENDED DRIER
(AND SLIGHTLY WARMER) IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM EXITS FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND
TO BEGIN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW120 SCT-BKN250. SURFACE
WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, INCREASING AFTER 18Z TO SOUTHWEST
10-15G25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOW FIRE DANGER. MIN
RH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, DIPPING TO 20-30% THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 20 MPH LEADING TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH LOW-END BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BETTER MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH IN THE
25-35% RANGE, KEEPING FIRE DANGER LOW. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS A WINTER STORM SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 30 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 31 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 31 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 26 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 29 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 56 29 55 27 / 0 0 10 0
DEMING 65 28 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 28 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 38 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 58 26 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 70 31 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 32 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 68 34 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 33 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 36 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 28 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 64 27 65 27 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 33 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 31 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 26 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 51 27 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 50 24 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 55 19 54 17 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 61 29 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 26 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 27 54 25 / 0 0 10 0
HURLEY 60 25 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 63 16 63 14 / 0 0 10 0
MULE CREEK 57 28 56 25 / 0 0 10 10
FAYWOOD 59 31 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 67 28 66 25 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 66 27 65 25 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 31 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 60 35 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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