486
FXUS64 KEPZ 270004
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
504 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 446 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE SIXTIES.
- COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES,
BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A LOWLAND WINTRY MIX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AHEAD
OF A CUT-OFF LOW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. CONTINUED BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE LOW SPINS AWAY OVER THE SOCAL/LAS VEGAS REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER S AZ, PULLING MOISTURE
WESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND NORTHWARD, NOW ENTERING
WEST-CENTRAL NM FROM AZ INSTEAD OF ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE COME DOWN FURTHER IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS A RESULT
WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA, AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN NM WED-WED NIGHT BEFORE THE CORE OF
THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE ON THURSDAY. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
GIVES MOST AREAS A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY SLOTTING AND A RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM (850MB
TEMPS AROUND 5C FOR MOST OF THE EVENT) INDICATES MINIMAL IMPACTS
FROM SNOWFALL FOR THE LOWLANDS. HOWEVER, THE MOUNTAINS STILL HAVE
A LOW CHANCE (~20%) OF SEEING MINOR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST WSSI PROBABILITIES.
THE GEFS HAS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON SNOW POTENTIAL, WITH THE
90TH PERCENTILE NOW SHOWING A TRACE OR LESS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
AND 1-3" IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE EURO ENSEMBLE IS VERY SIMILAR FOR
THE HIGH-END SCENARIO. THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR BOTH ENSEMBLES SHOW
1" OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE REMAIN SOME OUTLIER MEMBERS
WITH 6-12" IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE
LOWLANDS GET MOSTLY RAIN AND THE MTNS SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE
LOWLANDS CAN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 4KFT THU NIGHT, BUT AGAIN, MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS STILL MTN SNOWFALL TOTALS AS THE
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE HAS 6-10", BUT THIS HIGH-END SCENARIO IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM'S DEPARTURE IS MORE CERTAIN NOW, EXITING THE
REGION TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR FRIDAY. ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
SWINGS THROUGH, BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE WERE LAST WEEK. HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F IN THE LOWLANDS ON THU, THEN REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER ZONAL FLOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM SKC-SCT250. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SPEEDS
AOB 7KTS. AFT 18Z WINDS WILL FAVOR S AND SW AND INCREASE TO
10-15KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AFT 21Z OF 20-22KTS. VSBY GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 10SM, SOME MINOR LOCAL BLDU POSSIBLE, BUT ONLY NEAR
SOURCES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
DRY, WARM, AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE FUELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY (70-90TH
PERCENTILE). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MOUNTAIN SNOW AND MOSTLY LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN COOL AS
THE SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. WE WARM UP AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO ABOVE
AVERAGE.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 12-30% THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN 20-40%. VENT
RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ON MONDAY, THEN FAIR TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 37 69 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 30 63 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 64 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 30 63 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 25 45 26 43 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 61 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 56 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 65 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 64 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 67 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 59 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 72 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 60 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 33 71 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 33 66 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 64 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 64 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 27 66 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 68 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 31 63 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 55 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 54 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 51 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 20 55 17 52 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 29 61 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 26 62 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 16 55 15 51 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 25 59 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 64 14 60 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 20 56 16 51 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 31 59 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 28 66 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 27 66 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 66 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 59 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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