110
FXUS64 KEPZ 270953
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 249 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE SIXTIES.
- COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES,
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS.
- WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. AN UL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR SOCAL
PROVIDING SOME WILDFIRE RELIEF THOUGH WITH A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD
THREAT FROM THE BURN SCARS. THAT UL LOW IS OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER. FOR TODAY, IT WILL KEEP US IN DEEP W TO SW'LY FLOW WHILE
SLINGING HIGH CLOUDS OUR WAY VIA THE SUBTROPICAL JET. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE US-MEXICO BORDER BEFORE SWINGING ENE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW. LEE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE CWA,
WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND POTENTIAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
WITH SOME BREEZINESS TOWARD THE AZ BORDER FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR THOUGH
WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING NOTICED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WITH THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING NM, PLACING THE CORE OF
ITS JET ACROSS NORTHERN/ CENTRAL SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WITH THE
BULK OF NM WITHIN THE COLD POOL OF THE LOW. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
AND LACK OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE CWA WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. AREAS NEAR THE AZ
BORDER AND THE GILA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY, BUT STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE LIMITED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
JET. TEMPERATURES FALL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE
PACIFIC FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE RAIN FOR THE
LOWLANDS, BUT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
THE LOW EXITS NM INTO THE SOUTHERN / CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH THE BACK-SIDE OF THE JET PASSING THROUGH THE STATE.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZIER THAN WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HUDSPETH COUNTY BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES, BUT WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL GIVE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWLANDS OF SIERRA CO. LOW
PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES COOL A COUPLE DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY
WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT.
FOR FRIDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
DESERT SW WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SHIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH.
THIS PATTERN WILL SEND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY,
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE KEEPING US DRY. NBM IS SHOWING A 20% CHANCE EL PASO
REACHES ITS FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF 2025 ON TUESDAY THE 3RD AND A
34% FOR WEDNESDAY THE 4TH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT-BKN250. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
SPEEDS AOB 7KTS. AFT 19Z WINDS WILL FAVOR SE TO SSW AND INCREASE
TO 10-15KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AFT 21Z OF 20-22KTS. VSBY GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 10SM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
TODAY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE SOUTHWEST LOWLANDS
OF NM, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, TOPPING OUT
AROUND 15 MPH, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER
TO MID TEENS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH HIGHER MIN RH
VALUES.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT 10 TO 15 MPH, BUT MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM EXCELLENT IN THE WEST TO POOR IN THE
EAST. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE POOR TO FAIR EAST AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD
WEST WITH MOUNTAINS RANGING GOOD TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 37 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 32 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 64 31 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 62 30 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 26 43 21 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 29 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 26 51 22 / 10 0 0 10
DEMING 65 26 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 63 23 57 21 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 38 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 26 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 70 32 69 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 34 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 69 33 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 65 33 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 36 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 62 29 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 65 26 62 24 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 67 31 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 30 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 29 54 24 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 54 26 52 23 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 50 24 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 54 17 50 15 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 60 28 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 61 26 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 54 24 50 21 / 10 0 0 10
HURLEY 59 23 54 20 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 63 14 58 12 / 10 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 55 24 50 21 / 10 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 57 28 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 24 60 22 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 24 60 22 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 28 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 58 30 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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