157
FXUS64 KEPZ 280524
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1024 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE SIXTIES.
- COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES,
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS.
- WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UL LOW SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS
SLOWLY MEANDERING EAST INTO FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. AN ANALYSIS OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON STILL DISPLAYING SOME
SUBTLE TIME/PLACEMENT OF UL LOW AS IT TREKS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. AS THE UL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE BORDERLAND,
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AS THE SUBTROPICAL
JET AND MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THE UL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE CORE OF THE JET SOUTH
OF THE LOW OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SONORA INTO CHIHUAHUA STATE OF
MEXICO. AS THE LOW CROSSES NEW MEXICO, THE BULK OF THE COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TREK OVER THE BLACK/GILA RANGE ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALL RAIN
IN THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SNOWFALL THAT DOES FALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOWING A DISTINCT DRY SLOT ENTERING THE BORDERLAND EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE AS THE THE STRONGEST PART OF THE JET PASSING OVER THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE LOWLANDS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY OVER HUDSPETH AND EL PASO COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO
COOLER AIR THAT WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UL LOW
WILL MOVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE STATE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THEN QUICKLY JET NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK SHIFTING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BRING FEW-SCT250 OVER
THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF BKN250. NO CIGS EXPECTED BELOW
220-250. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT
SOME S AND SW BREEZES UP TO 18KTS THROUGH 03Z POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. TOMORROW WINDS GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHERLY IN THE 5-12KT
RANGE. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS, AFT 18-20Z IN THE 12-20KT RANGE
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UL AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM
AND THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MIN RH VALUES
FOR TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 17-32% RANGE, AND WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. VENT RATES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE POOR THEN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD WEST OF THE
DIVIDE, WITH POOR VENT RATES ELSEWHERE. FOR THURSDAY, VENT RATES
WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO EXCELLENT ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 37 66 36 56 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 32 62 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 62 29 53 / 0 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 30 62 28 53 / 0 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 26 44 20 32 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 57 28 51 / 0 0 0 30
SILVER CITY 26 52 22 42 / 0 0 10 40
DEMING 26 61 25 52 / 0 0 0 30
LORDSBURG 23 59 22 48 / 0 0 10 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 64 35 54 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 26 59 28 56 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 32 70 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 58 32 48 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 33 67 32 57 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 33 62 31 53 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 62 34 53 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 29 61 26 52 / 0 0 0 20
HATCH 26 63 25 54 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 31 63 30 53 / 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 29 61 29 52 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 28 54 24 45 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 26 53 22 43 / 0 0 0 20
TIMBERON 24 51 20 41 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 19 51 15 43 / 0 0 10 40
HILLSBORO 29 57 25 49 / 0 0 0 30
SPACEPORT 26 59 23 52 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 25 51 21 41 / 0 0 10 40
HURLEY 23 54 20 45 / 0 0 10 30
CLIFF 15 59 13 50 / 0 0 20 40
MULE CREEK 25 51 22 42 / 0 10 30 50
FAYWOOD 29 54 24 45 / 0 0 0 30
ANIMAS 24 61 22 51 / 0 0 10 40
HACHITA 25 62 23 50 / 0 0 0 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 28 62 25 51 / 0 0 10 30
CLOVERDALE 31 54 26 45 / 0 0 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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