671
FXUS64 KEPZ 281129
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
429 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
SIXTIES.
- COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES,
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS.
- WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
THE LONG WAVE UL TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS IS SLIDING/PIVOTING EAST
AHEAD OF A LARGE, ELONGATED UL LOW, CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAS
VEGAS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE OUR WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE QUIETER WEATHER EMERGES.
THE UL LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS AZ. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
MILD WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE LOW EMERGES OVER NM BY WEDNESDAY, PLACING OUR CWA AT
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD POOL AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
H500 JET. THIS PATTERN IS LARGELY A DRY ONE, BUT SETS THE STAGE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE GILA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWLANDS. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
PAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL FILL IN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS, WHICH WILL
LARGELY KEEP LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE GILA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY CLOUDS INTO THE LOWLANDS. MOST
OF US WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY GIVEN PLACEMENT OF THE H500 JET.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN WITH THIS SYSTEM, DROPPING HIGHS
BACK BELOW NORMAL.
UL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/TROUGH WITH THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES UPWARD, RIVALING RECORDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. THE
THICKEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST (180-210) WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS. SPEEDS DECREASE AFTER DARK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE MIN RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 10
MPH. IT WILL BE BREEZIER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 20-FOOT
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH, BUT MIN RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WE BEGIN A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
MAX VENT RATES WILL VARY GREATLY TODAY WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT WITH POOR TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIVER.
VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE AREA WIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
CAUSE VENT RATES TO DROP TO THE POOR CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 36 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 32 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 29 52 25 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 62 28 52 21 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 44 21 32 14 / 0 10 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 27 50 25 / 0 0 30 10
SILVER CITY 53 23 41 22 / 10 30 40 20
DEMING 63 24 51 23 / 0 0 20 10
LORDSBURG 60 22 48 19 / 0 10 50 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 36 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 61 27 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 70 31 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 32 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 68 32 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 31 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 34 52 30 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 62 26 51 20 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 63 25 54 21 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 63 31 53 28 / 0 0 20 10
OROGRANDE 62 29 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 24 44 20 / 0 0 10 0
MESCALERO 54 22 42 15 / 0 10 10 10
TIMBERON 51 21 40 15 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 52 15 43 12 / 0 10 40 20
HILLSBORO 57 25 49 22 / 0 0 30 0
SPACEPORT 60 24 52 19 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 52 22 40 19 / 10 30 60 20
HURLEY 55 20 45 19 / 0 10 40 10
CLIFF 60 14 48 10 / 10 30 60 20
MULE CREEK 52 24 42 21 / 10 30 70 40
FAYWOOD 55 24 45 23 / 0 10 30 10
ANIMAS 62 23 50 20 / 0 10 40 20
HACHITA 62 23 50 21 / 0 0 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 25 51 22 / 0 0 30 20
CLOVERDALE 55 27 45 24 / 0 0 40 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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