938
FXUS64 KEPZ 291011
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
311 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A MOSTLY DRY UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
- BREEZY AFTERNOON TODAY BECOMING VERY BREEZY TOMORROW WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF DUST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER AZ WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
TODAY AND TOMORROW BRINGING BLEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW STAYS IN NORTHERN NM THROUGHOUT IT'S TRACK WHICH
WILL LEAVE US MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GILA REGION AND
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BEING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ANY LOWLAND RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED/VIRTUALLY NO IMPACTS. THE MORE
NOTICEABLE EFFECT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THE BREEZY WINDS
TODAY AND VERY BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CAN
EXPECT SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 10-20MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 30MPH. WEST WINDS OF 15-25MPH IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, BUT SOME
LOCATIONS LIKE OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS UPWARDS OF 30-35MPH AND GUSTS TO 45-50MPH. THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE WIND ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS THAT
AFTERNOON, BUT DOES SEEM SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. IN ADDITION, DUST MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE THAT AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
IDEAL FOR GOOD DUST PRODUCTION, BUT COULD SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES BUT THESE INGREDIENTS DON'T SIGNAL ANYTHING WORSE
THAN THAT. WITH THAT BEING SAID, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS CLOSE TO
NEARBY DUST SOURCES COULD SEE GREATER REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES.
EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
DUST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN
WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING THE WARMEST CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT BREEZES PERSIST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
WINDS HAVE TRENDED LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING, THOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY TREND TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING DUST IS NOT EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT TONIGHT, AND
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND NW
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHICH MAY ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST LONGER
AT ELP DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER AZ/NM TODAY
AND TOMORROW BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION, THIS WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TOMORROW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS BUT THURSDAY WILL BE THE
BREEZIEST. MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL BE 20-35% IN THE LOWLANDS AND
35-45% IN THE MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED THURSDAY,
PERHAPS JUST A TAD DRIER. CRITICAL RHS CREEP BACK IN STARTING
FRIDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THAT AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ALLOWING CRITICAL RHS TO BE SEEN OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND ONWARD BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT EACH DAY, STAYING AWAY FROM CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING POOR TO FAIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 55 32 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 26 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 51 26 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 21 53 23 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 14 29 20 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 25 57 27 / 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 21 45 23 / 20 20 0 0
DEMING 51 23 52 22 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 48 21 51 18 / 20 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 31 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 23 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 25 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 46 26 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 28 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 51 20 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 22 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 28 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 24 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 20 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 41 15 39 20 / 10 10 0 0
TIMBERON 39 13 39 19 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 43 13 50 18 / 10 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 21 55 26 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 51 19 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 19 46 22 / 20 20 0 0
HURLEY 44 19 47 20 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 49 11 54 11 / 40 30 10 0
MULE CREEK 42 20 49 21 / 40 30 10 0
FAYWOOD 44 22 48 25 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 50 20 55 21 / 20 20 10 0
HACHITA 49 21 53 21 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 23 54 23 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 44 24 49 26 / 20 20 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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