449
FXUS64 KEPZ 300609
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1109 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
- CONTINUED COOL ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
- THE WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD CREATE SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GILA
REGION THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MOST PRONOUNCED SNOW SHOWER
CURRENTLY AFFECTING SILVER CITY WILL SOON SHIFT EAST TO THE
MIMBRES VALLEY AND THEN THE BLACKS RANGE SHORTLY.
IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, WITH JUST WET PAVEMENT
AROUND SILVER CITY AT 6000 FEET, THOUGH A SLIPPER LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, INCLUDING EMORY PASS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
GILA REGION AND SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS TO AREA. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST, ON THURSDAY, BUT IT
WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US SOME WINDY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. I CAN'T RULE OUT
ANY PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWLANDS, BUT WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND DIRECTION IT WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE MORE
PREVALENT DUST SOURCE REGIONS IN NORTHERN MEXICO.
AFTER THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING, WE
WILL SEE AN EXTENDED WARM UP BEGIN. FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THURSDAY'S HIGHS WHICH WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WE WILL SEE A
FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. BY MONDAY, OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGH LEVELS. AFTER
TODAY, STILL NO SIGN OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS AN UPPER
LOW TRAVERSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN
20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
COMMON, AND A FEW APPROACHING 35 KNOTS.
WHILE BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED IN THE REGION, IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT ANY TAF SITES GIVEN THE WNW WIND DIRECTION,
THOUGH BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE (BUT
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER).
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING,
AND THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
OCCUR, GENERALLY AFTER 03Z.
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NO CEILING
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 102 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY BUT MIN RH'S WILL STAY
ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WE
WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND GET GOING, BUT WINDS WILL STAY
ON THE LOW SIDE OF THINGS. MIN RH'S THIS WEEKEND WILL RUN NEAR
10% IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEAR 20% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WE WILL SEE
EVEN DRIER MIN RH'S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE FROM VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ON THURSDAY AND POOR TO FAIR ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 32 55 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 26 50 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 26 53 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 22 51 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 13 29 20 45 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 24 58 27 59 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 21 45 25 59 / 50 10 0 0
DEMING 23 53 22 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 21 51 19 63 / 20 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 32 54 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 23 53 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 26 56 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 25 46 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 28 55 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 28 52 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 30 55 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 20 55 22 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 21 58 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 53 27 61 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 25 52 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 20 42 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 15 40 21 55 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 13 39 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 12 50 17 57 / 50 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 20 56 27 60 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 18 56 22 60 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 19 46 23 60 / 60 10 0 0
HURLEY 19 46 21 59 / 30 10 0 0
CLIFF 11 54 10 66 / 30 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 21 48 21 60 / 30 30 0 0
FAYWOOD 22 48 26 59 / 20 10 0 0
ANIMAS 20 54 21 64 / 30 0 0 0
HACHITA 21 52 21 61 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 23 53 24 62 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 24 48 27 61 / 30 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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