094
FXUS64 KEPZ 301036
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
- CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND LOWLAND DUST
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NM AND THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. THE BORDERLAND WILL BE
UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH KEEPING TEMPERATURES
VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL SET UP
OVER EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TODAY ALLOWING FOR VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 30 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 35
MPH IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. DUST WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY FOR
LOWLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE BEST DUST
POTENTIAL. AREAS AROUND DEMING/SUNSHINE, LORDSBURG PLAYA, AND
WHITE SANDS HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE PATCHY BLOWING DUST. WIND
DIRECTION AND OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR BLOWING DUST, BUT
VERY DRY SOILS COUPLED WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
FOR DUST PRODUCTION. WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNTREND AFTER SUNSET,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BREEZINESS LATER TONIGHT BUT FINALLY
CALMS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA.
EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE LIGHT AFTERNOON
BREEZES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EVEN HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 80 DEGREES. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE EL PASO COULD THREATEN TO SEE A
HIGH OF 80 DEGREES!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS AN UPPER
LOW TRAVERSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN
20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
COMMON, AND A FEW APPROACHING 35 KNOTS.
WHILE BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED IN THE REGION, IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT ANY TAF SITES GIVEN THE WNW WIND DIRECTION,
THOUGH BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE (BUT
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER).
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING,
AND THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
OCCUR, GENERALLY AFTER 03Z.
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NO CEILING
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
BREEZY WEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE LOWLANDS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS. MIN RH VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY WITH VALUES OF 20-35% IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 40-55% IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, ALLOWING CRITICAL RHS TO
RETURN AS SOON AS TOMORROW. CRITICAL RHS SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD CRITICAL RHS
PERSIST IN THE LOWLANDS. WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW AND ONWARD WILL STAY
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MANIFESTING ONLY AS LIGHT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT
FRIDAY IS THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. VENTILATION
RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY, BECOMING POOR TO GOOD
TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 26 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 26 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 23 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 29 20 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 27 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 25 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 23 62 26 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 21 62 23 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 32 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 23 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 26 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 46 28 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 28 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 27 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 32 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 22 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 58 24 62 26 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 28 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 25 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 25 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 40 21 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 20 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 50 18 57 18 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 27 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 57 22 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 23 59 27 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 21 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 54 12 66 16 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 23 60 26 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 26 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 21 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 52 21 62 24 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 24 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 27 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page