245
FXUS64 KEPZ 301748
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1048 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
- CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND LOWLAND DUST
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NM AND THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. THE BORDERLAND WILL BE
UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH KEEPING TEMPERATURES
VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL SET UP
OVER EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TODAY ALLOWING FOR VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 30 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 35
MPH IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. DUST WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY FOR
LOWLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE BEST DUST
POTENTIAL. AREAS AROUND DEMING/SUNSHINE, LORDSBURG PLAYA, AND
WHITE SANDS HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE PATCHY BLOWING DUST. WIND
DIRECTION AND OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR BLOWING DUST, BUT
VERY DRY SOILS COUPLED WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
FOR DUST PRODUCTION. WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNTREND AFTER SUNSET,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BREEZINESS LATER TONIGHT BUT FINALLY
CALMS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA.
EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE LIGHT AFTERNOON
BREEZES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EVEN HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 80 DEGREES. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE EL PASO COULD THREATEN TO SEE A
HIGH OF 80 DEGREES!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT'S LEAVING THE REGION,
SCT-BKN040 HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH MAINLY
SKC RETURNING TONIGHT. W WINDS INCREASE TO START THE PERIOD,
GUSTING TO 25-35KTS INTO THE EVENING. THERE'S A MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCE
THAT KELP REACHES AWW CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF THE
FOUR TAF SITES, BLDU IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SEEN AT KELP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VIS DROPPING AS LOW AS 4SM BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
BREEZY WEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE LOWLANDS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS. MIN RH VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY WITH VALUES OF 20-35% IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 40-55% IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, ALLOWING CRITICAL RHS TO
RETURN AS SOON AS TOMORROW. CRITICAL RHS SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD CRITICAL RHS
PERSIST IN THE LOWLANDS. WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW AND ONWARD WILL STAY
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MANIFESTING ONLY AS LIGHT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT
FRIDAY IS THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. VENTILATION
RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY, BECOMING POOR TO GOOD
TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 28 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 26 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 24 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 29 20 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 27 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 24 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 22 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 21 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 32 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 24 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 26 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 46 28 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 27 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 32 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 21 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 58 24 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 28 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 25 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 25 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 40 21 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 20 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 50 18 56 20 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 57 22 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 14 59 14 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 21 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 54 18 65 22 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 15 60 19 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 26 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 21 63 24 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 52 22 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 24 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 27 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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