261
FXUS64 KEPZ 302012
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
112 PM MST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM MST THU JAN 30 2025
- WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MST THU JAN 30 2025
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE SEEN ON RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM DEMING EASTWARD ALONG THE INT'L BORDER.
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2 MILES ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE DUST SETTLES. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY FROM THE W-NW AND WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SACS CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH FRIDAY AM LOWS
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME
TEMPERATURE MODERATION. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE WARMING TREND GOING FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE
PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY. DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
CHALLENGED EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK AS EL PASO HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
REACHING 80F ON TUESDAY. IT SEEMS LIKE SPRING HAS ARRIVED WITH
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STORM TRACK
STAYS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOMETIME AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY IS
LOOKING BREEZY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES,
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT'S LEAVING THE REGION,
SCT-BKN040 HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH MAINLY
SKC RETURNING TONIGHT. W WINDS INCREASE TO START THE PERIOD,
GUSTING TO 25-35KTS INTO THE EVENING. THERE'S A MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCE
THAT KELP REACHES AWW CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF THE
FOUR TAF SITES, BLDU IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SEEN AT KELP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VIS DROPPING AS LOW AS 4SM BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MST THU JAN 30 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR ZERO INTO NEXT WEEK UNDER A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY,
CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN ISOLATED SPOTS.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-20% ON FRIDAY, THEN 8-15% ON SATURDAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR ON FRIDAY, THEN POOR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 31 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 28 59 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 26 59 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 24 58 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 20 45 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 27 58 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 24 57 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 22 61 25 67 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 21 61 23 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 32 60 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 24 60 25 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 26 63 29 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 28 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 28 61 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 27 58 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 32 59 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 21 59 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 24 62 25 68 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 59 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 25 57 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 21 53 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 20 51 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 18 56 19 63 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 27 58 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 22 58 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 14 59 14 61 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 21 58 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 18 65 20 70 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 15 60 19 62 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 26 58 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 21 63 24 70 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 22 61 25 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 24 61 28 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 27 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page