494
FXUS64 KEPZ 311736
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1036 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER HIGH
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN EACH DAY. BY TUESDAY, MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A CHANCE OF REACHING
80 DEGREES. THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR! CURRENT NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOWING AN 82% CHANCE OF REACHING 80 DEGREES FOR EL
PASO. IT'LL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE CHANCES OF
REACHING 80F FOR EL PASO WILL BE 76%. BESIDES THE ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, NOT EXPECTING ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SKC BECOMING SCT-BKN250
AFTER 12Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST
7-10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
LOW FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CRITICAL MIN RH'S WILL
RETURN TODAY TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NM AND WILL EXPAND VIRTUALLY
AREAWIDE TOMORROW. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RHS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SEEN EACH DAY AS RAIN CHANCES ARE NON-EXISTENT. 20 FOOT WINDS
REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT EACH AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10
MPH. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BREEZY DAY WHICH COULD CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR TODAY AND POOR TO FAIR
TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 31 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 29 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 25 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 22 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 21 46 31 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 25 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 57 26 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 61 22 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 20 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 33 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 21 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 63 26 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 26 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 27 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 32 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 21 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 62 22 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 25 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 25 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 25 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 53 21 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 52 20 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 55 17 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 58 26 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 58 20 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 25 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 58 21 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 63 13 69 24 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 25 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 26 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 63 20 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 20 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 25 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 60 30 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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