914
FXUS64 KEPZ 312321
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 PM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 355 PM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
- REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AFTER SATURDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
FOR MID/LATE WINTER, THIS IS ONE OF THE QUIETER STRETCHES OF
WEATHER I CAN REMEMBER. NO CHANCE OF PRECIP, NO SIGINIFICANT
WINDS/BLOWING DUST EVENTS. JUST PROGRESSIVE WARMING AND NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS BY MONDAY. THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS IS A STRONG
BLOCKING RIDGE OUT OVER THE PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH OVER
150W...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 240 HOURS (FEB 10).
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POLAR JET REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA. A STANDING LONG WAVE
TROUGH BASICALLY FORMS ON THE LEE OF THE RIDGE, GIVING OUR AREA A
LONG STRETCH OF DRY, WARM WEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS, NO SHOT AT PRECIP
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD (THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY), AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN SINCE MID-NOVEMBER. THE
STRETCH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST, WITH
SOME LOWLAND HIGHS REACHING 80+ DEGREES. THESE THREE DAYS WILL
UNDOUBTABLY BREAK SOME RECORDS.
TEMPS A BIT LOWER AFTER WEDNESDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A
BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO BUCK THE UPPER AND MAY ENCROACH INTO THE
FAR EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY ERODE OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SKC BECOMING FEW250 BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT LOWLAND TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN S/SW AOB 07KT OR LESS
AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST FRI JAN 31 2025
VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ELEVATED JUST DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND
DRYING FUELS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, AND ALSO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SAME
PERIOD.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 12-17% THROUGH MONDAY, DECREASING TO 7-12%
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOUNTAINS 13-23% THROUGH MONDAY,
DECREASING TO 10-18% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENT RATES POOR-
FAIR THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 33 66 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 30 65 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 26 63 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 24 62 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 25 49 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 26 64 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 27 60 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 23 66 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 21 65 31 71 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 33 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 22 66 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 27 70 35 76 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 58 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 27 67 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 28 64 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 63 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 19 64 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 23 67 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 26 66 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 23 61 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 61 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 56 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 23 55 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 19 62 26 70 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 27 67 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 20 64 26 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 17 61 23 68 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 22 63 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 12 66 12 71 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 9 62 9 68 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 27 63 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 21 69 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 21 67 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 70 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 31 65 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-KELLY
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