471
FXUS64 KEPZ 070542
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1042 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
- THE DUST SHOULD SETTLE AROUND SUNSET AND THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- COLDER, BLUSTERY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOME LOWLAND AREAS, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF EL PASO.
- QUIETER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH MORE STRONG WINDS IN
THE FORECAST BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
THE FIRST OF A ONE TWO WEATHER PUNCH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO NEAR 60 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWLANDS WITH LOTS AND LOTS OF BLOWING DUST. VISIBILITIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS IS WELL BELOW 1 MILE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS MUCH LOWER THAN THAT. THE DUST WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET, AND THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL SLOW LATER TONIGHT. THE
SECOND PUNCH IN THE FORM OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL GIVE US
ANOTHER WINDY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WINDS MORE FROM THE WEST AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE SOME BLOWING DUST, BUT NOT AS
MUCH DUST AS WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO IT WILL HELP
CREATE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN AREA MOUNTAINS WHERE WE COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I CAN'T RULE OUT THAT WE MAY
SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN THE LOWLANDS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW MEXICO,
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR WINDS DOWN, BUT JUMP OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY,
BUT THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. ON MONDAY, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
AND OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
ALLOW OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON TO CREEP A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ON TUESDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TO GIVE US MORE WIND AND BLOWING DUST. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM IS NOT THE BEST TIMED FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS, BUT IF
THE SYSTEM WHERE TO SPEED UP JUST A LITTLE, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
REPEAT OF TODAY'S WINDS AND DUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
SAME STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST TO
THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY WILL REMAIN AS A PLAYER FOR FRIDAY
WEATHER. AGAIN THE REGION WILL SEE MORE STRONG SW AND W WINDS AND
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION, THE UPPER STORM WILL ADD SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS TO WESTERN AREAS. SKIES
WILL RANGE FROM SCT TO OVC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 080 WEST TO 150
EAST. WINDS WILL BE 10-20KT THROUGH 16-17Z...THEN INCREASE TO
20-30KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS AFT 18Z. BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED,
BUT NOT AS THICK OR WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER REDUCED VSBY
IN BLDU IS EXPECTED TO DROP VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 TO 3 SM AFT BTWN
20-01Z. THUS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR AND LIFR IN THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO VSBY DROPS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH'S WILL CONTINUE TODAY. FOR FRIDAY THE
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL RETURN, BUT MIN RH'S WILL BE HIGHER, WITH
READINGS 20% OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE WE WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE LESS WIND, BUT A
DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN. BY MONDAY SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH'S WILL
RETURN AND BY TUESDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 70 38 59 / 0 10 10 30
SIERRA BLANCA 38 69 32 53 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 36 63 30 56 / 0 20 10 30
ALAMOGORDO 37 63 28 55 / 0 20 20 40
CLOUDCROFT 26 40 17 32 / 0 30 30 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 58 32 54 / 0 50 30 40
SILVER CITY 31 48 27 50 / 10 90 50 30
DEMING 35 62 30 59 / 0 50 20 30
LORDSBURG 32 56 27 57 / 10 80 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 45 67 38 58 / 0 10 10 20
DELL CITY 39 70 32 57 / 0 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 40 74 34 60 / 0 0 10 20
LOMA LINDA 40 62 30 51 / 0 0 10 30
FABENS 40 71 34 60 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 40 66 33 58 / 0 10 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 65 36 57 / 0 20 20 30
JORNADA RANGE 37 62 30 56 / 0 20 20 30
HATCH 38 64 32 59 / 0 40 10 30
COLUMBUS 40 64 34 59 / 0 40 10 20
OROGRANDE 38 64 30 55 / 0 10 10 30
MAYHILL 33 53 22 44 / 0 20 20 50
MESCALERO 29 50 20 43 / 0 30 40 60
TIMBERON 27 51 17 42 / 0 20 20 50
WINSTON 25 49 20 48 / 0 70 40 40
HILLSBORO 34 56 27 54 / 0 60 30 30
SPACEPORT 32 60 25 55 / 0 30 20 30
LAKE ROBERTS 29 47 24 49 / 20 90 60 40
HURLEY 29 53 25 53 / 10 80 30 30
CLIFF 27 52 23 58 / 20 90 60 40
MULE CREEK 30 46 25 53 / 30 90 60 30
FAYWOOD 33 53 28 53 / 10 70 30 30
ANIMAS 36 56 27 59 / 10 80 20 10
HACHITA 36 58 27 57 / 0 60 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 38 58 29 58 / 0 70 20 20
CLOVERDALE 37 48 27 53 / 10 80 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT
BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST FRIDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST FRIDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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